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diff --git a/Finance/Current.md b/Finance/Current.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a699908 --- /dev/null +++ b/Finance/Current.md @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +# GDP print +what matter most is real fixed private investment. +This is where you get factories, tools, computers, machinery, AI, and all other forms of technology and productivity-enhancing devices, software, etc. It’s the source of real wage growth, medical advancements, better quality of life, higher standards of living, and so one. +Increased only 2.7 % over last 2 years which is below the GDP # meaning recent rate of GDP increases is unsubstainables - + laggin its pre covid trend +For last 7 Quarters Real governement purshases is growing at a faster rate than private consumption + the private economy—which is all that matters since it’s the only part that’s productive—is stalling out - more evident when looks at real fixed private investements +The federal debt increased almost $600 billion in Q1, in exchange for GDP increasing about $300 billion. +In other words, the federal government is “buying” only 53 cents of “growth” for every dollar it goes into debt + +# Macro +- USDJPY > 161, for the first time since 1986.Z +- Freddie Mac filed a proposal with the FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) to enter the secondary mortgage market (i.e. home equity loans), which could potentially unlock $980bn in equity for homeowners. Furthermore, if Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mac enter the market too, that figure jumps to $3 trillion. - covert fiscal stimulus plan for boomers + +OCT 23 Rally started after Yellen QRA* issued 50B less bonds than the market expected topped at the start of april 24 with spy @ 525 +5% correction in april with low @ 493, triggered by hot CPI and now 15 of may new ATH + +' U.S. Treasury's decision to fund the U.S. deficit with shorter-duration bills rather than bonds. +Oct'22-now is a big bear market rally ?? + + +EMification of usa markets +Japanification of the past is very different than today, today it is real negative rate & QE and covert debasement of currency +like bresil market - stairs down, elevator up ... +slow bleed , get inestor fustrated and out of nowhere it Rip up + + +Will fed pivot trigger another run up in inflation a la 1974-1982 +compare 74-76 to 22-24... + +To achive a "Soft-Landing" you need to preempt a big pick up in Job losses +"Save the ponzi, save the plebs" -yellen +Strength of Labor Market most important variable for 2024 +Initial jobless claim is a good indicator of when FED should start cutting + +Rational behind inflation second wave: productivity differentials (services/goods) and Granger causality (headline => wages => expectations => core) + + + +former "safe heaven" +- dividend stock +- Utilities +- Staple +- Mag7 # want mag7 revenue to stop growing before shorting +Why ? because bond will take that place Why? ... ? equity risk premium ? + +Is crypto the equivalent of the german stock market during weimar ? probably yes +4xQQQ but also kinda of a hedge against currency debasement + + |