In cycle downturns trend following is what to do.

The cycle is better seen on the long term
almost always at least weekly or montly data
before 1900 better to use DOWJONES data

Amplitude & Bartels for mesuring cycles
Spectrograph use to see which cycle are dominant in the data

The 42 month (182 week) cycle is the business cycle for equities, in bond is a little longer
The 30yr cycle is the big one

To trade cycle (business one) take a moving average about 1/4 the lenght of cycle and will catch these turn very effectively
or for z score do 1/2 the lenght of cycle..., because want the mesure the ups & then the downs...
or same lenght MAV to remove the "cycle" and get the trend !

what is driving the 30 day cycle is always changing and hard to pick up, too much noise

Will think we are mainly looking at a 4 yr cycle, 7yr cycle & a 30 yr cycle

Look at look at the Dickey folder test and not the hearst exponent(JM Hurst Cycle)



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