[[Fundamentals]] + definitions + theory like business cycle + spiral cat theory ... + History?? # or defenitions more quick access here - call it Financial_Dictionary Research ? Ideas(rename one to tickers??) + Themes + strategies Current? + dairy ? ------------- [[Financial Terms]] [[The Business Cycle]] [[Macro]] [Ideas](/Ideas/index.md) [[Effect of GLP-1's on investment landscape]] https://kalshi.com/ - macro and pop culture casino. implement rainbow logic on charts every trade ask: 1- what would change my mind about the thesis ? 2- plan where to cut if things go wrong or where to take profit Alexandre Harfouche sankey diagram for income statement Solami is best thought as 4xQQQ solana plan - follow VIP addresses - Bot MAV & 5min quick 10000X - make a token? Trend following is the most cost efficient hedge # indexes OECD leading index too volatile to be usefull Architecture Billings index... # SpiralCal Vix correlation to neap tide and low tides & moon works best when market emotionals since 1986 the return of writing puts on the SPX as outperformed Buy and hold in both returns and vol Earnings are a conincident indicator, foward looking statement are much more important Supercore (that’s core services ex housing) is what the FED like to watch (CPI) # Correlations Services inflation is the one bit most correlated to wages and unemployment. # Volatility If you look back at the history of volatility not every vol crush is followed by a major volatility spike but there is never a major vol spike unless its preceded by a vol crush. when vix curve goes into invertion it is one of the best signals ! look at the standard deviation of the slope of the invertion >> you can pick bottoms like crazy QRA : issue bill its stimulant issue bonds its removing liquidity from market The multifamily residential investment is effectively to buy dilapidated, low-yielding units, rehabilitate them, increase the rent, and then refinance the investment via government agency loans Policy maker want wealthflation bcs they can get tax proceeds and donor make alot of money April tax day... Sahm Rule = looking at the slope of an average seven types of income - Earned - Profit - Interest - Rental - Capital Gain (vs profit?) - Dividend - Royalties # GDP print what matter most is real fixed private investment. This is where you get factories, tools, computers, machinery, AI, and all other forms of technology and productivity-enhancing devices, software, etc. It’s the source of real wage growth, medical advancements, better quality of life, higher standards of living, and so one. Increased only 2.7 % over last 2 years which is below the GDP # meaning recent rate of GDP increases is unsubstainables - + laggin its pre covid trend For last 7 Quarters Real governement purshases is growing at a faster rate than private consumption the private economy—which is all that matters since it’s the only part that’s productive—is stalling out - more evident when looks at real fixed private investements The federal debt increased almost $600 billion in Q1, in exchange for GDP increasing about $300 billion. In other words, the federal government is “buying” only 53 cents of “growth” for every dollar it goes into debt https://theconversation.com/why-central-banks-are-too-powerful-and-have-created-our-inflation-crisis-by-the-banking-expert-who-pioneered-quantitative-easing-201158A Price leads sentiment and sentiment drive the narrative. Cheapest "insurance" is trend following. Naked selling of Options is akin to "Picking pennies of the railway track." As soon as you are long options you are long volatility and time is agaisnt you. The economy is not a speedboat its a tanker. Markets stop panicking when policy makers start panicking. All models are wrong. Be Right, Be Early, Be Loud Buy protection when you can, not when you must. Markets stop panicking when policy makers start panicking. When putting up a option spread always write first because the credit you get is your "budget" for the trade Druckenmiller: "I never use valuation to time the market. I use liquidity considerations and technical analysis for timing. Valuation only tells me how far the market can go once a catalyst enters the picture to change the market direction." Twitter: when a group of low IQ retards start shouting loudly in unison, they do the work for you… Positioning is everything Don't trade P/L, trade stocks You can trade nonsense but don't believe it Don't react like a Pavlovian response machines to the daily market narratives Stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down When a trader start to feel really smart, he is headed for a huge drawdown Nothing is ever confirmed until it is pubicly denied # stock picking advices - During a bear market, monitor the outperformers in significantly underperforming industries. They will be the best stocks of the coming bull. - When the bear gives way to the bull, buy the companies that IPO’d during the bear market. - Stanley Druckenmiller Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets. Money (the kind worth having in any case) is usually downstream of character and relationships Character (mental/physical health and skill) —> relationships —> wealth "" When I want to raise cash I put it into bershire hataways "" ....