Auto from nzxt - Tue 02 Sep 2025 03:36:59 PM EDT

3 files changed, 23 insertions, 114 deletions

diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/index.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/index.md
index 60f4336..2fb13c7 100644
--- a/Finance/Fundamentals/index.md
+++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/index.md
@@ -15,6 +15,19 @@
 [[Greeks]]
 
 
+# Defining Macro Environement
+- Is Economy expanding / contracting
+- Is GDP above or below zero
+- What is GDP doing after stripping out inflation ? Above/Below zero ?
+- What is the prevailling lvls of interest rates (nominal rate - inflation)
+- what are credit spread doing ?
+- what are private sector expectation for growth
+- What is current monetary policy settings - Expension/Contraction
+- What is current fical policy settings Expension/Contraction
+- What are foward looking Equity market Valuation doing ?
+
+
+
 # 11 Major Sector
  |----------------------------|-----------------|
  | Real Estate                | Cyclical        |
@@ -33,32 +46,8 @@ Notional exposure of calls/puts = # of options * 100 * strike price
 Sharpe Ratio = annualised returns / annualised std dev of portfolio
 
 
-"" When I want to raise cash I put it into bershire hataways "" ....
-
 declining yield make stock more attractive from a valuation perspective, debt easier to roll over ...
 
-Q1 = Janvier,Fevrier,Mars
-Q2 = Avril,May,Juin
-Q3 = Juillet,Aout,Septembre
-
-# Defining Macro Environement
-- Is Economy expanding / contracting
-- Is GDP above or below zero
-- What is GDP doing after stripping out inflation ? Above/Below zero ?
-- What is the prevailling lvls of interest rates (nominal rate - inflation)
-- what are credit spread doing ?
-- what are private sector expectation for growth
-- What is current monetary policy settings - Expension/Contraction
-- What is current fical policy settings Expension/Contraction
-- What are foward looking Equity market Valuation doing ?
-
-
-# Hedge Fund Exemple
-- XYZ Fund as 100,000,000 $ as AUM
-- Typically hold 25 Long & 25 Short
-- Self imposed 2% position limit - no position over 2M
-- Charged investor a 2% Management fee and a 20% performance fee thus making 2M in fee and (0.20 * 2M) 4M in performance fee.
-- 50% of performance fee reinvested into fund
 
 # Relative values trades exemple
 
diff --git a/Finance/index.md b/Finance/index.md
index c6a1606..bcc1264 100644
--- a/Finance/index.md
+++ b/Finance/index.md
@@ -29,6 +29,7 @@ Start by analysing Volatility ATR of the stock to set initial hard stp loss and
 
 Positive correlation between Nominal GDP growth rate & Nominal interest rates
 
+things that do well in deflationary env - Utilities, Consumer staples, Low P/E stocks (not growth)
 
 Every company in theory if not shriking should grow at least at GDP + Inflation
 Inflation - 2%
diff --git a/Trading.md b/Trading.md
index 4cd44a0..911ef99 100644
--- a/Trading.md
+++ b/Trading.md
@@ -5,110 +5,29 @@
 - WBA  - Long Turnaround
 - AMT  - Long as proxy for short rates
 - BG   - Long Inflation trade
-- NVDA - Short turnaround - Has gone nowhere since June 2024! Get over it. Move on. You can make money from other stocks too PT:70-85$ by June
 - ASTS - Long Beta momentum ?
-- NKE - Long
-- UBER - Jan26 Risk/Reversal - Short $72.5 Puts, Long $115 Calls for $0.59 net credit
-- TEMPUS AI (TEM) - Jan26 Risk/Reversal - Short $45 Puts, Long $100 Calls for 0$
-- NEBIUS (NBIS) Jan26 Risk/Reversal - Short $30 puts, Long $60 calls
-- ARM (long via Mar26 $120 calls)
 - AMT -  LONG BOND PROXY PLAY
-- Jan26 $31/$42 SLV
 - short KLC (bearcave)
-- bullish CRCL if pullback
-- long VZ & AT&T
-- PSIX as datacenter trade ?
 - HE - hwaian electric (turnaround) ?
-- MSFT 8/15 540C (Paid 3.3) LORDFED
 - CEG & deal with kipper? californian companies (catalyst)
 
 
-If the Nixon shock ushered in the end of Bretton Woods 1.0, yesterday — probably to be named in history “Trump shock” — ushered in the end of Bretton Woods 2.0.
+# Market Themes  (eventually separate into current and future?)
+- handset to headset transition
+- Ad agencies to be hurt by GenAI (IPG, OMC, WPP)
+- USD Debasement
+- GAG (trump admin won't take care of the deficit, it was just a big joke, they will pump bags so DC can service more debt)
 
-positive catalyst for end of "correction": new debt ceiling which will provide an injection of liquidity,
-
-NFP next Friday (3rd July), 90-day pause deadline on reciprocal tariffs (9th July), CPI (15th July), FOMC (30th July), NFP (1st August), CPI (12th August) and the 90-day pause deadline on 145% tariffs for China (14th August.
-
-
-- Debasement theme "this is africa"
-
-# We dont know when bottom
-astrology say's should be end march, lot volatility sideway trading april/may then FED does something June then New moon in cancer end june market goes into recovery
-
-GAG: focus on pre-vote SPACS
- SPACs, the downside is the Trust Floor (free options)
-
-CANNABIS RESCHEDULING ?
- Mike Tyson got on Fox News pleading for relaxed marijuana regulation
-
-GAG THEME
-
-Basel3 - 1 july 25
-basel3 reclassified gold as Tier 1 asset, on par with cash and bonds
-project 2025 & gold
-
-
-China taking over Taiwan - Trade war in focus now
-
-DEFLATION ?
-
-ACCUMULATE BONDS ?   I wouldn't take any profits, we may end up at 3% on 10y once people see deflation as more likely than stagflation - texaskitty
-
-real austerity (fix aka no QE ) or QE
-
-
-eurofag to ban XMR by 2027
-
-the whole,we are going to take care of the deficit by the trump admin was a big joke, only thing they can do is pump bags, DC need the market higher so can service more debt.
 
 # citrini
 We think healthcare will be ground zero for phase 2 of AI, expect significant improvement in speed and efficiency in identifing drug candidate will led to significant tailwind for the drug devellopement supply chain.
 
+# sleepy sol
 
-# sleepysol
-
-pointing to down trend in durable good (BEA), not good mean deflation (worst case scenario?) , as to do with restrain on immigration...
-
-things that do well in deflationary env - Utilities, Consumer staples, Low P/E stocks (not growth)
-
-buy healthcare, energy, utilities
-
-
-24 april -
-if bullish DXY should be long risk assets, sell defensive sell gold
-if belives only a bounce, buy risk asset and then dump them into cash or gold and wait for next DXY leg down
-
-
-Deflation is coming - earnings revison down told us
-
-if bearish DXY - CVNA will roll over
-
-
-WHEN DXY BOTTOM GO LONG RISK ASSETS
-
-
-# Mike Wilson - Morgan stanley - King Contra Monkey
-7 april - "4700 (SPY) next level of support"
-12 may - "Our 6,500 S&P 500 year-end target is very much intact"
-
-
-ad agencies like Interpublic Group (NYSE: IPG — $9.38 billion), Omnicom Group (NYSE: OMC — $14.6 billion), and WPP plc (NYSE: WPP — $7.72 billion) may suffer as more companies use Generative AI for their advertising campaigns.
-
-
-commodities ready to explode higher ?
-every economically sensitive cyclical is moving up when the high beta stuff is flushing.
-
-
- handset-to-headset transition - meta bought into EssilorLuxotica
-
-
- the trend of direct AI-powered answers will become a headwind for other websites like Yelp (NYSE: YELP — $2.18 billion), Tripadvisor (NASDAQ: TRIP — $2.36 billion), NerdWallet (NASDAQ: NRDS — $789 million), and companies like Taboola (NASDAQ: TBLA — $1.17 billion), which provides programmatic ads on publisher websites.
+FIAT CURRENCY DEBASEMENT  END GOAL
 
+Long end of every gov is starting to collapse as inflation or idea of inflation gets into the system
+if energy does not work in the next few weeks, will not work until q2 2026 ... ?
 
- I think Robinhood is very important, as I don’t think you can consider any momentum stock seriously as a long until Robinhood breaks.
 
 sleepy sol - RDDT 2027 250 calls on the next touch of 141.
-
-
-
-FIAT CURRENCY DEBASEMENT  END GOAL