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authornic <ra@afu.re>2025-11-01 20:44:04 -0400
committernic <ra@afu.re>2025-11-01 20:44:04 -0400
commit8340dd2e2ccd5750c60d2ab4c23203b26ace90d3 (patch)
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Auto from nzxt - Sat 01 Nov 2025 08:44:04 PM EDT
-rw-r--r--Finance/index.md71
-rw-r--r--Trading.md3
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diff --git a/Finance/index.md b/Finance/index.md
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@@ -83,3 +83,74 @@ Trend retest holds: Multi-week trendlines respected on a low-vol pullback into m
What matters most is how the price trades at those levels. Not that it gets there, but what happens when it does.
I guess what I am trying to say is that strong hands buy structure and weak hands chase. Your job is to lean into those control zones, where you can define risk, size with intent, and scale into conviction when the market confirms.
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+
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+# SpiralCal
+Vix correlation to neap tide and low tides & moon
+works best when market emotionals
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+
+excluding the 2010's historically one of 3 sector is the best perfoming since the 1980s - Consumer staples, Energy & Utlities
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+since 1986 the return of writing puts on the SPX as outperformed Buy and hold in both returns and vol
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+If you look back at the history of volatility not every vol crush is followed by a major volatility spike but there is never a major vol spike unless its preceded by a vol crush.
+when vix curve goes into invertion it is one of the best signals !
+look at the standard deviation of the slope of the invertion >> you can pick bottoms like crazy
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+
+
+The multifamily residential investment is effectively to buy dilapidated, low-yielding units, rehabilitate
+them, increase the rent, and then refinance the investment via government agency loans
+
+Lingotto/Scolari, arguably one of the best investors in Europe of his generation - keep track of his trades
+Some interesting holdings of theirs $Gato, $VEON, $RRC, $PCOR, $mrna, $sbsw, $PARA, $FATH $INDV
+
+
+
+
+***Cesi & 10y t-note correlation***
+Citi group economic surprise index
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+a recession is a process that starts way before it’s officially dated and never hinges on a single data point.
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+Strat: Buy just before close on friday and sell monday morning gap up
+
+# Emerging markets
+Big 4 are BRICS = BRASIL, RUSSIA, INDIA, CHINA
+Characterics of emerging markets compared to Develloped markets
+- less liquid
+- less volume
+- Higher Political risk
+- Opaque regulation
+- Lower P/E at the index lvl
+- Investor Crowding into stock with growth
+- low free float
+- more pro cyclical
+- high and uncertain correlation to fx exchange rate
+
+What not to do in EM
+- Think you are a EM investor
+- Have pair trade accross Developed market and EM
+- Believe you have political insight
+- Be surprised if the unexpected happens and nobody cares
+
+# Manipulation of LIBOR during GFC
+
+- real manipulation done by central bankers & way worse than traders who where jailed
+- in 07-08 all banks were consistenlty lying about the true cost of borrowing dollars by lowballing their funding rate which lead to a massively depressed LIBOR
+- Peter Johnson - The low ball tapes
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+
+
+https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/files/DEUTSCHEBANK-AGUIDETOTHEOIL%EF%BC%86GASINDUSTRY-130125.pdf
+
diff --git a/Trading.md b/Trading.md
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@@ -19,9 +19,6 @@
- CENX
-
-I WANT TICKER REFERENCED HERE TO LINK TO TICKER IN RESEARCH
-
# Market Themes (dynamics) (eventually separate into current and future?)
- LONG POAHY -Euro rearmement bet