Auto from nzxt - Fri 09 Aug 2024 12:25:47 PM EDT

7 files changed, 98 insertions, 2 deletions

diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/Building Permits Report (BPR).md b/Finance/Fundamentals/Building Permits Report (BPR).md
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+++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/Building Permits Report (BPR).md
@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
+Census Bureau monthly report on building permits 
+
+
+				(Fondations Laid)    (On market for sale) 
+Building Permit authorized ---> Housing starts ---> Housing Completion 
+Permit --> Starts --> Completion
+Leading Indicator ---> Coincident Indicator ---> Laggin Indicator 
+
+Building permits # tells us 
+
+- Wheter or not developers are bullish/bearish on the prospect of future home sales. It coest between 500-1000$ per home to make application, thus the number is the expectation of a future sale.
+
+- The Demand for housing from the US consumer. This may **Lead** to change in Consumer Sentiment & Consumer Spending.
+
+- The supply for loans. Developers in the US do not Finance project with 100% equity/cash they use a mix of equity/cash/debt. Also the US consumer does not buy Houses for cash, they buy them with debt(mortgage). Therefore the building permit number give us insight into the liquidity and health of the US lending environement i.e. the health of the Banking Sector.
+
+The BPR number aka "the willingness of bank to lend $ index" is the best indice for the health of the US debt market. 
+The number forecast GDP growth and can give us ideas for trades in Homebuilders, Bank, Furniture, Timber, Steel, Chemical & Paint and anything related to the Housing Sector.
+
+Economic Indicator that lag Completion, Starts and Permit include
+- Pending Home Sales
+- New Home sales
+- Existing Home sales
+- Case-Schiller Index
+- Housing Market Index
+
+Source:
+Census Bureau releases on the 18th working day of each month for previous month 
+
+FRED : New Privately-Owned Housing Units Authorized in Permit-Issuing Places: Total Units (PERMIT) 
diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/Building Permits Report (BPR.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/Building Permits Report (BPR.md
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+++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/Building Permits Report (BPR.md
diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/Employement Situation Report (ESR).md b/Finance/Fundamentals/Employement Situation Report (ESR).md
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+++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/Employement Situation Report (ESR).md
@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+# non-farm payroll & the employement rate
+
+- Total non-farm payroll account for ~80% of the workforce that produces US GDP
+
+- Used to gauge wether views determined by leading indicators are confirmed/denied
+
+
+The ESR consist of the following
+- Unemployement Rate
+- Total non-farm payroll
+- Private sector employement
+- Gov sector employement 
+  
+  
+The non-farm payroll is a coincident indicator that tells us how many job where added to the US economy
+
+Day trader tend to focus on the non-farm payroll # as their main economic guide but it is wrong as it is a coincident idicator and lags leading indicators. 
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+Source:
+It is reported monthly on the first friday @ 8h30 by the Bureau of Labor statistics (BLS)
+
+Initial and continuous claims of unemployement are reported every Thursday for the previous week, they will show up in the non-farm payroll in the future.
+
+
diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/Employement_Situation_Report_(ESR).md b/Finance/Fundamentals/Employement_Situation_Report_(ESR).md
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+++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/Employement_Situation_Report_(ESR).md
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+
diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/Euro Econ Sentiment (ESI).md b/Finance/Fundamentals/Euro Econ Sentiment (ESI).md
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+++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/Euro Econ Sentiment (ESI).md
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+European Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) 
+
+ESI is not like PMI where above 50 is growth, instead we look at the long term trend line and wether europa is forecasted to grow above or below long term trend.
+
+| Survey - Confidence Indicator | Weight |
+| (INDU) Industrial             | 40%    |
+| (SERV) Service                | 30%    |
+| (CONS) Consumer               | 20%    |
+| (RETA) Retail Trade           | 5%     |
+| (BUIL) Construction           | 5%     |
+| (ESI)                         | 100%   |
+
+
+INDU = Equivalent of ISM PMI
+SERV = Equivalent of ISM NMI
+CONS = Equivalent of UMCSI
+BUIL = Equivalent of Building Permits
+
+
+Source:
+Release on the last business of each month for the same month 
+
+
diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/Indicators.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/Indicators.md
index 335949f..50489f7 100644
--- a/Finance/Fundamentals/Indicators.md
+++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/Indicators.md
@@ -4,15 +4,21 @@
 
 [[University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (UMCSI)]]
 
+[[Employement Situation Report (ESR)]]
 
+[[Building Permits Report (BPR)]]
 
+[[Euro Econ Sentiment (ESI)]]
 
 3 types of economic indicator
 - Lagging	Past	(lag 3-6 months)
 - Coincident	Present
 - Leading	Future  (lag 6-12 months
 
+One amateur mistake is to use Coincident indicators to initiate postions
 
+Confirmation Indicators: Coincident & Lagging indicators
+They either confirm or deny our views on the prospects of US GDP Growth, that we have already obtained from Leading Indicators, 6-12 month earlier.
 
 Supercore (that’s core services ex housing) is what the FED like to watch (CPI)
 Services inflation is the one bit most correlated to wages and unemployment.
@@ -34,4 +40,9 @@ Need to take notice of when number of 401K millionaires peak
 wealthflation = price of financial assets,real estate, cost of private school...
 plebflation = what we are experiencing, epicerie ect..  (more cpi like?)
 
-
+# Industrial Productions Numbers
+- Published around 16th of each month
+- Coincident Indicator
+- Lag PMI by ~6month
+- Monthly raw volumes of goods produced by industrial firms
+- Used inconjuction with industry capacity estimate to calculate capacity utilisation ratio for each line of business
diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/Option Strategies.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/Option Strategies.md
index 877d083..e921f7f 100644
--- a/Finance/Fundamentals/Option Strategies.md
+++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/Option Strategies.md
@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ Bullish:
 	- [[Long Call]]
 	- [[Short Put]]
 	- [[Bull Call Spread]]
-	- 
+	- [[Short Bull Ratio Spread]]
 	
 
 Bearish: