diff options
| author | nic <ra@afu.re> | 2024-10-14 19:57:11 -0400 |
|---|---|---|
| committer | nic <ra@afu.re> | 2024-10-14 19:57:11 -0400 |
| commit | 89eea895ce9e81096e958538e5f5303b3dbc4ed8 (patch) | |
| tree | a6dcc869226757736c8d13b50a03f40e4817a877 /Finance | |
| parent | 9489fb495243918049431dcbeabb224bdcc3d9d5 (diff) | |
Auto from nzxt - Mon 14 Oct 2024 07:57:11 PM EDT
Diffstat (limited to 'Finance')
| -rw-r--r-- | Finance/Current.md | 22 |
1 files changed, 11 insertions, 11 deletions
diff --git a/Finance/Current.md b/Finance/Current.md index 82422fa..c239892 100644 --- a/Finance/Current.md +++ b/Finance/Current.md @@ -13,23 +13,24 @@ Real GDP will get revised lower in coming months, as labor market deterioration - Non-farm employement diffusion index at the cusp of <50 - Full-time permanant employee index - Deterioration +# trade to work on +- BMBL Short +- MSOS Long +- GEO Long +- TRAK Long +- XLE Long +- CVE & VET Long: if 25 XLE year get rdy to scale in in size +- RKT Long +- BYND short +- XBI Long +- QFIN Short # Macro & Themes - Will fed pivot trigger another run up in inflation a la 1974-1982 - compare 74-76 to 22-24... -- Yen carrie trade unwind - USDJPY > 161, for the first time since 1986. -- Freddie Mac filed a proposal with the FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) to enter the secondary mortgage market (i.e. home equity loans), which could potentially unlock $980bn in equity for homeowners. Furthermore, if Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mac enter the market too, that figure jumps to $3 trillion. - covert fiscal stimulus plan for boomers -- Israel-Iran -- Ukraine - Citi group economic surprise index in negative territory since may, will lead to 10y t-note trend down -- Mag7 sentiment ATH -- Canada UR back to GFC levels - As corporate revenues get under pressure, volume & unit sales protection will superseede any other consideration (at top line) & margin protection will super seede at bottom line. Will lead to short period of defalation in goods and services. If labor weakness added to the mix people will pile into rates quickly. -- existing home for sale above 21,22,23 lvls -- the uncertainty of US election will lead to higher vol -- record low stock beating SPY -- both candidates bad for bonds - Energy for all data center they are building , who? where? - EMification of usa markets - Japanification of the past is very different than today, today it is real negative rate & QE and covert debasement of currency like bresil market - stairs down, elevator up ... slow bleed , get inestor fustrated and out of nowhere it Rip up - Commodities & platinum deficit @@ -46,7 +47,6 @@ Oct'22-now is a big bear market rally ? 16th July market topped after retail sales -Fed put = 3.8 on US10y To achive a "Soft-Landing" you need to preempt a big pick up in Job losses |