Auto from nzxt - Sat 01 Nov 2025 08:42:25 PM EDT

5 files changed, 1 insertions, 132 deletions

diff --git a/Finance/Current.md b/Finance/Current.md
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-# Thesis
 
-Real GDP will get revised lower in coming months, as labor market deterioration accelerate, earnings decelerate and margin inflect lower (even deflation & recession)
-Only thing on top of mind in terms of reason to sell, if the unemployement situation continues to deteriorate despite the FED easing of policy that would be pretty concerning - Citrini
-
-Goal might be to inflate away the sovereign debt issue with slightly higher inflation
-
-Is crypto the equivalent of the german stock market during weimar ? probably yes
-4xQQQ but also kinda of a hedge against currency debasement
-
-
-# Themes & setups
-
-- Will fed pivot trigger another run up in inflation a la 1974-1982 - compare 74-76 to 22-24...
-- Energy for all data center they are building , who? where?
-- EMification of usa markets - Japanification of the past is very different than today, today it is real negative rate  & QE and covert debasement of currency like bresil market - stairs down, elevator up ... slow bleed , get inestor fustrated and out of nowhere it Rip up
-- Commodities & platinum deficit
-- China crushed, waiting after fed for stimulus - need to deal with its youth & unemployement - figure out when catalyst to buy
-- Future was ai just a meme pullback
-- value/grow spread largest in 40 years
-- Humanoid robot theme meme wave
-- Bond 3std move in 2025?
-- sell off into mid/end of Feb, OR one in April
-- TRUMP coin breaking will be the end of alt season
--  Energy and power consumption are going to be THE stories this year
-- Disinflation trend - further shelter disinflation anchored by slowing wage growth
-
-# ITPM 2025 outlook
-- Trump leading to deascalation, notably russia ukraine - Russia oil could come back on international markets
-- China in depression - china can lie but not steel and copper
-- As of now US Market been in bull market since June 2023 (20% of 22 lows)
-- Rally brodening to small cap due to Trump
-- IWM to retest its 2021 ATH ?
-- Europe a mess - stock price remain ok due to EUR devaluation - EUR/USD parity looks inivitable
-- 24 sept was the day the market responded to PBOC 500B stimulu pkg - Hang seng lost most its gain now
-- Inflation still historically high - Trump admin is inflationary
-- 10/2y as steepened/normalised
-- 80 lvl on UMCSi coincide with above 2% GDP growth
-- Energy cost
-
-
-# Alex notes
-- Retail Investor net purchase of Equities - Retail all in
-- GDP headed down & past quarter GDP should follow employeent adjustement with sharp revisions
-- Quit Rates should continue deteriorating - JOLTS quit rate vs Rehire rate (proxy)
-- Wages should continue decelerating - Atlanta FED median wage growth vs Indeed wage tracker (proxy)
-- Chapter 11 insolvencies crossed key treshold
-- Earnings are starting to get revised lower post Q2 but 2025 eps still as way to go
-- Margin are peaking at lower levels than 2022 - disinflation gathering pace, should bottom in one yr (sept25)
-- Non-farm employement diffusion index at the cusp of <50
-- Full-time permanant employee index - Deterioration
diff --git a/Finance/Research/Effect of GLP-1's on investment landscape.md b/Finance/Effect of GLP-1's on investment landscape.md
index 37ff22d..37ff22d 100644
--- a/Finance/Research/Effect of GLP-1's on investment landscape.md
+++ b/Finance/Effect of GLP-1's on investment landscape.md
diff --git a/Finance/Research/.conf.md b/Finance/Research/.conf.md
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-[$CUSTOM_EBUILD_REPO_NAME]
-location = /var/db/repos/$CUSTOM_EBUILD_REPO_NAME
diff --git a/Finance/Research/index.md b/Finance/Research/index.md
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-
-
-
-# Citrini
-
-[[Effect of GLP-1's on investment landscape]]
-
-
-# SpiralCal
-Vix correlation to neap tide and low tides & moon
-works best when market emotionals
-
-
-excluding the 2010's historically one of 3 sector is the best perfoming since the 1980s - Consumer staples, Energy & Utlities
-
-
-since 1986 the return of writing puts on the SPX as outperformed Buy and hold in both returns and vol
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-
-
-
-If you look back at the history of volatility not every vol crush is followed by a major volatility spike but there is never a major vol spike unless its preceded by a vol crush.
-when vix curve goes into invertion it is one of the best signals !
-look at the standard deviation of the slope of the invertion >> you can pick bottoms like crazy
-
-
-
-The multifamily residential investment is effectively to buy dilapidated, low-yielding units, rehabilitate
-them, increase the rent, and then refinance the investment via government agency loans
-
-Lingotto/Scolari, arguably one of the best investors in Europe of his generation - keep track of his trades
-Some interesting holdings of theirs $Gato, $VEON, $RRC, $PCOR, $mrna, $sbsw, $PARA, $FATH $INDV
-
-
-
-
-***Cesi & 10y t-note correlation***
-Citi group economic surprise index
-
-
-
-a recession is a process that starts way before it’s officially dated and never hinges on a single data point.
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-
-
-Strat: Buy just before close on friday and sell monday morning gap up
-
-# Emerging markets
-Big 4 are BRICS = BRASIL, RUSSIA, INDIA, CHINA
-Characterics of emerging markets compared to Develloped markets
-- less liquid
-- less volume
-- Higher Political risk
-- Opaque regulation
-- Lower P/E at the index lvl
-- Investor Crowding into stock with growth
-- low free float
-- more pro cyclical
-- high and uncertain correlation to fx exchange rate
-
-What not to do in EM
-- Think you are a EM investor
-- Have pair trade accross Developed market and EM
-- Believe you have political insight
-- Be surprised if the unexpected happens and nobody cares
-
-# Manipulation of LIBOR during GFC
-
-- real manipulation done by central bankers & way worse than traders who where jailed
-- in 07-08 all banks were consistenlty lying about the true cost of borrowing dollars by lowballing their funding rate which lead to a massively depressed LIBOR
-- Peter Johnson - The low ball tapes
-
-
-
-https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/files/DEUTSCHEBANK-AGUIDETOTHEOIL%EF%BC%86GASINDUSTRY-130125.pdf
diff --git a/Finance/index.md b/Finance/index.md
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--- a/Finance/index.md
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 [Fundamentals](/Fundamentals/index.md)
 
-[Research](/Research/index.md)
-
-
 [Tickers](/Tickers/index.md)
 
-[[Current]]
-
+[[Effect of GLP-1's on investment landscape]]
 
 # Dynamics and logic