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diff --git a/Finance/Current.md b/Finance/Current.md index 9ca5e59..3c208d6 100644 --- a/Finance/Current.md +++ b/Finance/Current.md @@ -1,3 +1,19 @@ +# Thesis + +Real GDP will get revised lower in coming months, as labor market deterioration accelerate, earnings decelerate and margin inflect lower (even deflation & recession) + +# Alex notes +- Retail Investor net purchase of Equities - Retail all in +- GDP headed down & past quarter GDP should follow employeent adjustement with sharp revisions +- Quit Rates should continue deteriorating - JOLTS quit rate vs Rehire rate (proxy) +- Wages should continue decelerating - Atlanta FED median wage growth vs Indeed wage tracker (proxy) +- Chapter 11 insolvencies crossed key treshold +- Earnings are starting to get revised lower post Q2 but 2025 eps still as way to go +- Margin are peaking at lower levels than 2022 - disinflation gathering pace, should bottom in one yr (sept25) +- Non-farm employement diffusion index at the cusp of <50 +- Full-time permanant employee index - Deterioration + + # Macro & Themes |