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| -rw-r--r-- | Finance/Current.md | 109 | ||||
| -rw-r--r-- | Finance/Fundamentals/Axioms.md | 2 | ||||
| -rw-r--r-- | Finance/Fundamentals/index.md | 1 | ||||
| -rw-r--r-- | Finance/index.md | 2 |
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diff --git a/Finance/Current.md b/Finance/Current.md index 1bef07d..f148e70 100644 --- a/Finance/Current.md +++ b/Finance/Current.md @@ -1,13 +1,39 @@ # Thesis -# 2025 outlook +Real GDP will get revised lower in coming months, as labor market deterioration accelerate, earnings decelerate and margin inflect lower (even deflation & recession) +Only thing on top of mind in terms of reason to sell, if the unemployement situation continues to deteriorate despite the FED easing of policy that would be pretty concerning - Citrini +Goal might be to inflate away the sovereign debt issue with slightly higher inflation +Is crypto the equivalent of the german stock market during weimar ? probably yes +4xQQQ but also kinda of a hedge against currency debasement -Goal might be to inflate away the sovereign debt issue with slightly higher inflation +# Themes & setups + +- Will fed pivot trigger another run up in inflation a la 1974-1982 - compare 74-76 to 22-24... +- Energy for all data center they are building , who? where? +- EMification of usa markets - Japanification of the past is very different than today, today it is real negative rate & QE and covert debasement of currency like bresil market - stairs down, elevator up ... slow bleed , get inestor fustrated and out of nowhere it Rip up +- Commodities & platinum deficit +- China crushed, waiting after fed for stimulus - need to deal with its youth & unemployement +- Future was ai just a meme pullback +- value/grow spread largest in 40 years +- Humanoid robot theme meme wave +- Bond 3std move in 2025? + +# ITPM 2025 outlook +- Trump leading to deascalation, notably russia ukraine - Russia oil could come back on international markets +- China in depression - china can lie but not steel and copper +- As of now US Market been in bull market since June 2023 (20% of 22 lows) +- Rally brodening to small cap due to Trump +- IWM to retest its 2021 ATH ? +- Europe a mess - stock price remain ok due to EUR devaluation - EUR/USD parity looks inivitable +- 24 sept was the day the market responded to PBOC 500B stimulu pkg - Hang seng lost most its gain now +- Inflation still historically high - Trump admin is inflationary +- 10/2y as steepened/normalised +- 80 lvl on UMCSi coincide with above 2% GDP growth +- -Real GDP will get revised lower in coming months, as labor market deterioration accelerate, earnings decelerate and margin inflect lower (even deflation & recession) # Alex notes - Retail Investor net purchase of Equities - Retail all in @@ -31,64 +57,19 @@ Real GDP will get revised lower in coming months, as labor market deterioration - BYND short - XBI Long - QFIN Short - - -# Macro & Themes - -- Will fed pivot trigger another run up in inflation a la 1974-1982 - compare 74-76 to 22-24... -- Citi group economic surprise index in negative territory since may, will lead to 10y t-note trend down -- As corporate revenues get under pressure, volume & unit sales protection will superseede any other consideration (at top line) & margin protection will super seede at bottom line. Will lead to short period of defalation in goods and services. If labor weakness added to the mix people will pile into rates quickly. -- Energy for all data center they are building , who? where? -- EMification of usa markets - Japanification of the past is very different than today, today it is real negative rate & QE and covert debasement of currency like bresil market - stairs down, elevator up ... slow bleed , get inestor fustrated and out of nowhere it Rip up -- Commodities & platinum deficit -- China crushed, waiting after fed for stimulus - need to deal with its youth & unemployement - - -OCT 23 Rally started after Yellen QRA* issued 50B less bonds than the market expected topped at the start of april 24 with spy @ 525 -5% correction in april with low @ 493, triggered by hot CPI and now 15 of may new ATH - -' U.S. Treasury's decision to fund the U.S. deficit with shorter-duration bills rather than bonds. - -Oct'22-now is a big bear market rally ? - -16th July market topped after retail sales - - - -Strength of Labor Market most important variable for 2024 - - - -former "safe heaven" -- dividend stock -- Utilities -- Staple -- Mag7 # want mag7 revenue to stop growing before shorting -Why ? because bond will take that place Why? ... ? equity risk premium ? - -Is crypto the equivalent of the german stock market during weimar ? probably yes -4xQQQ but also kinda of a hedge against currency debasement - -# GDP -Real private investment increased only 2.7 % over last 2 years which is below the GDP # meaning recent rate of GDP increases is unsubstainables - + laggin its pre covid trend -For last 7 Quarters Real governement purshases is growing at a faster rate than private consumption - the private economy—which is all that matters since it’s the only part that’s productive—is stalling out - more evident when looks at real fixed private investements -The federal debt increased almost $600 billion in Q1, in exchange for GDP increasing about $300 billion. -In other words, the federal government is “buying” only 53 cents of “growth” for every dollar it goes into debt - - - -# PMI -Service PMI employement came in at 46.1 confirming a 5 month contraction that is intensifying & confirming Jan print was dead cat bounce -new one - - - -# - -Trump will be a deflationary president that will cause headwin to the us equity market need be in dividend stock bcs only thing will do well ? - - -Only thing on top of mind in terms of reason to sell, if the unemployement situation continues to deteriorate despite the FED easing of policy that would be pretty concerning - Citrini - -Short companies with high margin, long companies with low margin -Citrini +- PM - target 145-150 EOY +- LMT/PLTR +- IGV/SMH +- APP short if not inclided in S7P march +- Long UWMC +- Long BG - restarting inflation trade - inflationary pressure on agricultural products +- Short TOL - reveneu topped 2yr ago +- Short MRNA +- Short BUMBL +- @SnowKitten200 - BTU +- VST chart look so good - catalyst with Constellation fresh aquisition - target 190 - 220 if real real good move + + +12 Jan - Constellation is the best preforming S&P 500 stock YTD, Up 36% already +small crash in feb ? +smaller dip in February, flat March, mostly flat April, and then we start a grind higher in May, diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/Axioms.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/Axioms.md index 10390ae..daa4d16 100644 --- a/Finance/Fundamentals/Axioms.md +++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/Axioms.md @@ -60,3 +60,5 @@ When Vol spike higher secure profit Long China is the Hedge to Long Us momentum Debtor they miss a payment they start acting like they are owning you a favor if they give you anything and they youre going to spend all your time houding them - fix it first + + diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/index.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/index.md index 594d26d..c1d13f9 100644 --- a/Finance/Fundamentals/index.md +++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/index.md @@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ [[Technical_analysis]] + # 11 Major Sector | Real Estate | Cyclical | diff --git a/Finance/index.md b/Finance/index.md index e6ab741..a2a4e5a 100644 --- a/Finance/index.md +++ b/Finance/index.md @@ -5,7 +5,6 @@ [[Current]] -@SnowKitten200 - BTU probability = succesful outcomes / total outcomes @@ -16,6 +15,7 @@ odds = succesful outcome : unsucessful outcomes +if opinion on forex express it via stocks If started positon half of max position can cut stp loss by half |