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+
+
+I have been long LLY and NVO because of GLP-1 drugs since early 2022
+drug that is nearly as effective as bariatric surgery and acts via, primarily, appetite reduction
+
+Nearly 42% of the U.S. population is obese
+
+5 FDA approved drugs for weight loss, currently: orlistat, phentermine-topiramate, naltrexone-bupropion, liraglutide, and semaglutide
+A sixth, tirzepatide, is expected to be approved soon.
+
+Saxenda (Liraglutide - NVO) and Wegovy (Semaglutide - NVO) are the two GLP-1 drugs approved for weight loss by the FDA
+Oral preparations are in development
+
+Mounjaro (Tirzepatide - LLY) expected to be approved by FDA for weight loss soon  -  consensus expectations place it sometime in Q4 23 = Q1 24.
+
+GLP drugs have been on the market for 2 decades - 1st was exenatide (marketed under the brand name Byetta)
+
+Will patients keep the weight off if they go off the drug? So far, with wegovy, patients gain back about half of the weight they lose. In early 2024, we’ll find out how Mounjaro stacks up against this
+
+Right now, Novo has a monopoly on GLP-1 drugs that are FDA approved for weight loss.
+
+Lilly’s approval for Mounjaro in Obesity ??
+
+Genuinely effective obesity drugs, as GLP-1s appear to be, should have a positive impact on the bottom line of US health insurers like Cigna (CI), United Healthcare (UNH), Humana (HUM) and Centene (CNC).
+
+Positive for:  InMode (Sells products used to improve muscle tone after abdnominoplasy) (INMD),
+tailwind for both Match Group (MTCH) and Bumble (BMBL) simply from people feeling better about the way they look and being more open to dating.
+
+
+Negative for: Tandem Diabetes (TNDM), Teleflex (relying on increased bariatric surgery volumes for growth) (TFX),
+plus size retail - Destination XL (DXLG) or Torrid (CURV) - short-term, those plus-size clothing stores may actually see an increase in demand. - vs LMVH...
+medical devices indutry - (A)ResMed (RMD), Inspire Medical Systems (INSP), AdaptHealth (AHCO) & Quipt Home Medical (QIPT), (A) Koninklijke Philips NV (PHG)
+^ CPAP machine ones are by far at the most risk. - CPAP Machines, Sleep Apnea & Obesity
+
+fast food
+Obese persons are likely responsible for an outsized percentage of sales by volume, and it’s not uncommon to meet someone with obesity who consumes fast food twice a day.
+Mounjaro tends to create an almost visceral aversion to fast food
+YUM Brands (YUM), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Brinker International (EAT), Restaurant Brands (QSR) and Darden Restaurants (DRI). << -- most impacted
+prudent to mention DoorDash (DASH) - Planet Fitness (PLNT)
+MediFast (MED) or Herbalife (HLF)
+
+The science
+GLP-1 (Glucagon-like peptide-1)
+helps prime insulin release, thus allowing the body to absorb glucose after a meal
+GLP-1 is able to reduce blood glucose levels via insulin release
+
+#Currently approved GLP-1 Drugs
+
+Novo Nordisk: Semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy/Rybelsus)
+half-life of around 7 days in the blood, making it a longer-lasting GLP-1
+ Semaglutide was originally intended for use in diabetic patients but quickly began apparent that one notable effect was the ability of semaglutide to also cause decreases in weight
+
+
+Eli Lilly: Tirzepatide/Mounjaro
+half-life of around 5 days
+Originally for use for diabetic type 2 patients (T2DM)
+
+Mounjaro approved for weight loss (q423) ???
+
+Novo Nordisk: Rybelsus
+Oral treatment
+Rybelsus is FDA approved, but not yet approved for weight loss.
+
+Eli Llly: Orfoglipron/LY3502970/ Formerly Chugai OWL833
+Orfoglipron is an oral GLP1R agonist - half life of 25-68 hours
+comparable weight loss with other GLP1R agonists such as semaglutide and Rybelsus, but has a slightly better side effect profile and achieves weight loss in a shorter period of time. It is not currently FDA approved.
+
+#Clinical-Stage GLP-1 Drugs
+
+Eli Lilly: Mazdutide/ LY3305577 / Formerly Innovent IBI362
+Oxyntomodulin (OXM) acts as a dual GLP1R/GR dual agonist
+ half-life, to around 7.5-9.8 days
+ Mazdutide overall appears to achieve superior weight loss, in shorter periods of times compared to GLP1R agonists. However, due to the lower sample sizes, these impressive effects are likely to become more tempered as clinical trials progress.
+
+# Glucagon Receptors and Triple Agonists (GGG)
+
+While GLP1R and GIPR reduce caloric intake, by reducing appetite, Glucagon receptors (GR) can act in concert by increasing energy expenditure.
+
+Sanofi produced a triple agonist, SAR441255
+Sanofi have since discontinued development of the triple agonist for human use for uncited reasons.
+
+Hanmi Pharmaceuticals: Efocipegtrutide/HM15211
+
+Eli Lilly: Retatrutide/ LY3437943
+ A half-life of 5 days also allows Retatrutide to be administered only weekly
+
+
+These results taken together suggest that adding even mild amounts of GR agonism (to increase energy expenditure) on top of a dual agonist like Tirzepatide is able to produce even more pronounced decreases in weight.
+
+# Different combinations of dual agonist: GIP1R and GR
+Altimmune: Pemvidutide/ALT-801
+
+Novartis: Bimagrumab/BYM338
+Bimagrumab shows a separate mechanism from GLP1R or GIPR agonism, instead targeting muscle cells
+
+Novo Nordisk: CagriSema
+analog of amylin
+ acts as an agonist for calcitonin receptors
+
+Boehringer Ingelheim / Zealand Pharma (ZLDPF): Survodutide (aka BI 456906)
+
+
+
+So far, Eli Lilly and Hanmi Pharmaceuticals are the only companies so far pursuing clinical trials of triple agonists. Whether Novo Nordisk or Sanofi decide to renew their efforts for a triple agonist, or other competitors decide to compete also remains to be seen.
+
+#Companies most directly related to peptide research related reagents include (but not limited to):
+
+Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)
+Merck (MRK)
+Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO)
+Agilent (A)
+Abcam PLC (ABCM)
+
+#Tangentially related are companies that provide auxillary services, such as DNA and RNA sequencing technologies:
+
+Illumina (ILMN)
+Pacific Biosciences of California (PACB)
+10X Genomics (TXG)
+
+
+Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (RYTM) is also involved in peptidergic drugs for weight loss.
+Its drug Imcivree (setmelanotide) has been approved by the FDA for three rare genetic diseases that cause obesity and is currently seeking approval for Hypothalamic Obesity (obesity due to genetic or physical damage to the hypothalamus).It has a neuroendocrine pathway independent of the GLP-1 receptors, working by stimulating melanocortin-4 receptors (MC4R) to reduce hunger and increase basal metabolic rate. The side effect profile is more serious than GLP1R agonists, including depression and suicidal ideation and it is not approved for other types of obesity. MC4R mutations are a rare form of genetic disorder that leads to obesity reduced metabolic rate and glucose imbalances. This disease is readily treated by MC4R agonists, such as setmelanotide.
+
+
+Eli Lily and Novo already trade at rich valuations, but during the ramp of Viagra while there were still no generic alternatives Pfizer traded higher than 90x LTM earnings.
+
+# Conclusion
+
+GLP-1 Drugs work for their intended purpose and will likely represent a revolution in the way obesity is treated as well as obesity rates in the developed world
+
+The consequences and benefits for various parts of the economy now that we are seeing outcomes previously only consistent with bariatric surgery available in a pharmaceutical will be wide-reaching and important for investors to monitor
+
+If you are uncomfortable with the current valuations of LLY and NVO, I would recommend looking into more downstream effects where tailwinds provided by these drugs may not be priced in to expectations by the market and/or consensus estimates yet.
+
+
+# additional notes
+
+Norvo Nordisk has Ozempic(Diabetes) and WeGovy(WeGovy) which are the same drug approved for different uses. Semaglutides.
+
+Elly Lilly has has Mounjaro(tirzepatide) which is better in some ways.
+
+70% of American's are overweight. 238 million
+40% are Obese. 136 million
+
+They make people feel full faster.
+They change the kinds of food people like.
+
+
+The impact this drug has on a persons relationship with food is incredible:
+
+People crave high-fat/non-sweet foods much less and prefer low fat sweet foods more (see pictures)
+People also eat vastly less calories. (most studies being a reduction of 20-35%)
+
+Sources say shortage could run into 2025.
+
+Ozempic loses exclusivity sometime around 2032. At this point we should see a ramp of of generics entering the market and the beginning of what looks to a fully pentrated market.
+
+1-months prescription is anywhere between $800-1300 and insurers aren't covering it yet.
+
+Once we see Novo and Elly hit peak demand at current prices I am sure they will lower their prices and keep lowering until ozempic loses exclusivity.
+
+Will gov subsidise the drug eventually ?
+
+Where we are with drug penetration in the markets ?
+
+research on:
+1. Lasting side effects. There are some.
+2. Average time of use as once patients stop it ex behavior change the weight comes back.
+
+
+how long will people take it for; if they stop, for how long, etc.
+
+
+GLP-1 users have a 20-30% reduction in daily calorie intake driven by 20-40% reduction in daily meals/snacks.
+impacted: HSY, CPB, DPZ
+
+MS projects 24 million US anti-obesity medication users in 2035 (7% of US population).
+As I said on the call, I think 7% by 2035 sounds conservative. By then, AOMs will be safer, cheaper, and more effective. I guess 20%-30% will use.
+
+
+Studies show that patients lose up to 18 % bodyweight after 68 weeks. and then rebound but not all the way. They also:
+
+snack less
+eat fewer meals
+exercise more
+
+Price is a major problem so we need to understand as much as we can about when competitors will bring their drugs to market.
+
+-Novo loses exclusivity sometime in 2032.
+
+-GLP 1 agonists like SAXENDA(daily injection) & Trulicity (30% less effective.) go off patent in 24 & 28
+
+Pfizer also has Danuglipron. Lotiglipron is discontinued.
+
+Danuglipron (oral) showed significant weight loss (5% or more in 16 weeks) in phase 2 trials.
+
+Do patients regain weight after treatment cessation? Yes. - therefore must cycle on the drug or permanent
+
+Side effects of (Ozempic/WeGovy/Mounjaro) are quite significant.
+
+Vomiting
+The shits
+Ect
+
+Long lasting effect could be kidney failure- BUT this is most likely caused by dehydration due to diarrhea and its not conclusive whether its caused by the drug itself.
+
+The catalyst for when these drugs really start to reflect in the food industry's revenue will be when the drugs are cheaper and more acessible.
+
+Will be before 2032 but probably not before 2025/6.
+
+expensive & innaceble until when ?
+
+
+Ozempic very effective at preventing kidney disease progression into kidney failure.
+Most cases of kidney failure are caused by diabetes, obesity, and high blood pressure. It's an enormous drag on healthcare systems
+^ - negative for Davita Inc(DVA)
+
+How much does it matter that every consumer product in the world depends on a tiny cohort of super consumers?
+The top 9% of US adults account for 34% of US candy consumption
+The top 5% of Canadian gamblers account for 53% of online gambling spend
+The top 10% of American adults account for *over 70%* of US alcohol consumption
+the top 20% of US adults account for…
+70% of ice cream consumption
+75% of coffee consumption
+77% of soda consumption
+87% of cigarette consumption
+How many American industries have been propped up for the last 50 years by the poor impulse control of a small cohort of people with eating problems, drinking problems, and gambling problems?
+
+Ozempic is significantly more muscle sparing than Mounjaro
+expects triple G drugs like Retatrutide will be significantly less muscle sparing than Mounjaro as well
+
+Mounjaro is significantly better tolerated by nearly all patients with diabetes and prediabetes
+
+Very excited for CagriSema and bimagrumab
+
+Very bearish on insulin pumps in general.
diff --git a/Finance/Financial Axioms.md b/Finance/Financial Axioms.md
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+Price leads sentiment and sentiment drive the narrative.
+
+Cheapest "insurance" is trend following.
+
+Naked selling of Options is akin to "Picking pennies of the railway track."
+
+As soon as you are long options you are long volatility and time is agaisnt you.
+
+The economy is not a speedboat its a tanker.
+
+Markets stop panicking when policy makers start panicking.
+
+All models are wrong.
+
+Be Right, Be Early, Be Loud
+
+Buy protection when you can, not when you must.
+
+Markets stop panicking when policy makers start panicking.
+
+When putting up a option spread always write first because the credit you get is your "budget" for the trade
+
+Druckenmiller: "I never use valuation to time the market. I use liquidity considerations and technical analysis for timing. Valuation only tells me how far the market can go once a catalyst enters the picture to change the market direction."
+
+Twitter: when a group of low IQ retards start shouting loudly in unison, they do the work for you…
+
+Positioning is everything
+
+Don't trade P/L, trade stocks
+
+You can trade nonsense but don't believe it
+
+Don't react like a Pavlovian response machines to the daily market narratives
+
+Stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down
+
+When a trader start to feel really smart, he is headed for a huge drawdown
+
+Nothing is ever confirmed until it is pubicly denied
+
+
+# stock picking advices
+- During a bear market, monitor the outperformers in significantly underperforming industries. They will be the best stocks of the coming bull.
+- When the bear gives way to the bull, buy the companies that IPO’d during the bear market.
+
+
+
+- Stanley Druckenmiller
+Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets.
+
+
+
+
+Money (the kind worth having in any case) is usually downstream of character and relationships
+
+Character (mental/physical health and skill) —> relationships —> wealth
+
+
+"" When I want to raise cash I put it into bershire hataways "" ....
diff --git a/Finance/Financial Terms.md b/Finance/Financial Terms.md
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+Backwardation: Foward price of a future conract is lower than spot price
+
+Contango: Foward price of a future contract is higher than spot price
+
+Contract for Difference (CFD's)
+
+Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) aka The Refunding
+
+Free Cash Flow (FCF)
+
+Net Operating Income (NOI)
+
+Debt service coverage ratio (DSCR)
+
+Loan to value (LTV)
+
+Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
+
+Producer Price Index (PPI)
+
+SOFR is ex-LIBOR
+
+Goldilocks: An ideal state for an economy whereby the economy is not expanding or contracting by too much. Has steady economic growth, preventing a recession, but not so much growth that inflation rises by too much
+
+Hawkish: Favor higher interest rates to keep inflation in check
+Dovish: Favor an interest rate policy that is more accommodative to stimulate spending in an economy
+
+
+Curve Steepener: buying short-term Treasuries and shorting longer-term Treasuries
diff --git a/Finance/Idea_table.md b/Finance/Idea_table.md
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+++ b/Finance/Idea_table.md
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+
diff --git a/Finance/Ideas/ABR.md b/Finance/Ideas/ABR.md
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+## Ticker: NYSE:ABR
+### Arbor Realty Trust
+
+# Qualitative Analysis
+Two business segments: Structured Loan Origination and Investment Business
+Invest in the multifamily, single-family rental (“SFR”) and commercial real estate markets
+Also invest in real estate-related joint ventures and may directly acquire real property and invest in real estate-related notes and certain mortgage-related securities.
+Organized to qualify as a real estate investment trust (“REIT”)
+We provide a suite of comprehensive customized financing solutions to meet the various needs of borrowers. We target borrowers whose options may be limited by conventional bank financing.
+
+# timeframe
+default by max may 2025
+
+# 16 feb earnings
+Arbor CEO has just proclaimed that delinquencies are in the low single digits and the CLO data that Viceroy obtained from the trustee is wrong.
+
+This is a blatant lie, and easily verifyable
+
+# viceroy research
+PT = 0$
+Viceroy’s dive into Arbor’s CLOs suggest its entire loan book is distressed
+and underlying collateral is vastly overstated. These loans do not qualify for refinancing anywhere, and
+substantially all mature within the next 18 months. (written nov 16 2023)
+
+0% to 5% rates as derailed all ABR projects
+
+The current underlying DSCR of Arbor’s ~$7.6b CLOs is about 0.63x meaning their OI covers only 63% of their total debt service.
+There is no feasible rate cuts in the next 18 months that could salvage these projects.
+
+Arbor’s business model is to finance bridge loans for multifamily residential unit investments, typically through renovation periods. After renovation, Arbor can then refinance these bridge loans into agency loans.
+
+In order to access liquidity against these floating rate bridge loans, Arbor established Collateralized Loan
+Obligation facilities (CLOs)
+
+Billions of dollars of loans in CLOs were made to finfluencers and real estate “guru” syndicates who have
+zero real estate investment backgrounds. ex: Elisa Zhang
+
+Significant portion of the properties underlying the CLOs have atrocious reviews, including pictures, and
+have not been rehabilitated. Some properties have already been condemned and labelled as slums.
+
+Poor maintenance, poor security, vandalism, theft, and shootings are widely reported among properties.
+
+Lack of authentic good review
+
+Management appears to be raising rents of properties without any actual rehabilitation.
+
+The only feasible way that we believe Arbor can continue as a going concern is by refinancing bridging loans. Per
+above, we note that doing this is effectively just prolonging a catastrophe
+
+Arbor’s loan book substantially matures over the next 18 months. As shown in Section 6 below, new
+originations are fading quickly in high-rate environments that do not support most multifamily rehabilitation
+bridging projects
+
+NOI figures have not improved.
+
+The CLOs will inevitably breach covenants and become distressed
+
+Horrible management of propeties
+
+Severals lenders in Arbor’s CLOs (that arbor made loan's to) are in financial troubles
diff --git a/Finance/Ideas/ASTS.md b/Finance/Ideas/ASTS.md
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+#Ticker: NASDAQ: ASTS
+##AST SpaceMobile Inc
+
+# Qualitative Analysis
+
+Satellite designer & manufacturer.
+Building what we believe is the first space-based cellular broadband network designed to be accessible by standard mobile phones (The SpaceMobile Service)
+Global coverage for users
+The SpaceMobile Service currently is planned to be provided by a network of 168 high-powered, large phased-array satellites in LEO
+
+We are partnering with Mobile Network Operators
+
+We currently are targeting to achieve substantial global mobile coverage after the launch of a total of 110 satellites by the end of 2024 and multiple input multiple output ("MIMO") capabilities during 2025 after the launch of a total of 168 satellites.
+
+ The SpaceMobile Service has not yet generated revenue and is not expected to generate revenue until after the commercial launch of the SpaceMobile Service
+
+  accessible to any standard, unmodified, off-the-shelf mobile phone or 2G/3G/4G LTE/5G and IoT-enabled device
diff --git a/Finance/Ideas/HE.md b/Finance/Ideas/HE.md
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+++ b/Finance/Ideas/HE.md
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+## Ticker: NYSE:HE
+### Hawaiien Electric
+
+## Qualitative Analysis
+HEI is a holding company with its subsidiaries principally engaged in electric utility, banking, and non-regulated renewable/sustainable infrastructure businesses (Electric utility, Bank, and Other.)
+HEI’s sources of funds are dividends or other distributions from its operating subsidiaries, borrowings, and sales of equity.
+
+Electric Utility: Hawaiian Electric and its operating utility subsidiaries, Hawaii Electric Light Company, Inc. (Hawaii Electric Light) and Maui Electric Company, Limited (Maui Electric) provide service to approximately 95% of Hawaii’s population - 72% of earnings
+
+Bank: American Savings Bank (ASB) 3rd largest in Hawaii - 28% of earnings
+
+Other: corporate-level operating, general and administrative expenses and the results of Pacific Current, LLC (Pacific Current)
+
+August 8, 2023 was Hawaii fire incident - Liability risk
+
+estimate damages cost - 5.5 B - https://www.facebook.com/countyofmaui/posts/pfbid02kwcpL5MaspoEpkmqR6AEmRwMevdrvgdtinPTFy5ogvHLxNHig8Hm2UCYF7XLT9xGl
+estimate insurance companies exposure - 3.2 B - https://www.aol.com/news/lahaina-wildfire-insured-property-loss-095355255.html
+
+Economic toll of Hawaii wildfires could climb to $16 billion - https://www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report/the-cost-of-the-maui-fire/
+paying that would bankrupt company instantly
+
+
+Credit rating downgrade by S&P - https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3041908
+
+# Kpi's
+advanced smart meters ?
+
+### RESEARCH: NYSE: PCG
+similar situation, that of the 2018 Californian Camp Fire, the Pacific Gas & Electric Company was found liable, and these liabilities were part of the reasons why the company filed for bankruptcy in 2020
diff --git a/Finance/Ideas/LIN.md b/Finance/Ideas/LIN.md
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+++ b/Finance/Ideas/LIN.md
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+
+## Ticker: NASDAQ:LIN
+
+## Qualitative Analysis
+
+LINDE is the largest industrial gas company worldwide. It's primary products are:
+atmospheric gases (oxygen, nitrogen, argon, and rare gases)
+process gases (carbon dioxide, helium, hydrogen, electronic gases, specialty gases, and acetylene )
+also designs and builds equipment that produces industrial gases
+
+Linde serves a diverse group of industries including healthcare, chemicals and energy, manufacturing, metals and mining, food and beverage, and electronics.
diff --git a/Finance/Ideas/LPG.md b/Finance/Ideas/LPG.md
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+++ b/Finance/Ideas/LPG.md
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+
+#Ticker: NYSE: LPG
+## Dorian LPG Ltd
+
+# Qualitative Analysis
+
+Transport LPG (Liquefied petroleum gas) since 2002
+Own and operate VLGCs (Very Large Gas Carriers)
+
+Our fleet currently consists of twenty-two VLGCs, including our nineteen new fuel-efficient 84,000 cbm ECO-design VLGCs, or our ECO VLGCs, one 82,000 cbm VLGC, and two time chartered-in VLGC
+
+The twenty VLGCs in our fleet, excluding the two time chartered-in vessels, have an aggregate carrying capacity of approximately 1.7 million cbm and an average age of 7.5 years as of May 27, 2022
diff --git a/Finance/Ideas/PAYX.md b/Finance/Ideas/PAYX.md
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+++ b/Finance/Ideas/PAYX.md
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+## Ticker: NASDAQ:PAYX
+### Paychex inc.
+
+ fiscal year that ends May 31st
+
+# list all competitors & make basket
+
+# Qualitative
+Provider of human capital management (“HCM”) solutions for human resources (“HR”), payroll, benefits, and insurance
+
+As of May 31, 2023, we served approximately 740,000 payroll and PEO clients.  - KPI ?
+
+The key features of our solutions are:
+•Comprehensive cloud-based platform optimized to meet the HR and payroll needs of small- and medium-sized organizations;
+•Streamlined workforce management that combines technology with flexible support options;
+•Modern, mobile, and intuitive user experience and self-service capabilities;
+•Scalable and customizable platform that allows clients the ability to add services as they grow;
+•Software as a service, or “SaaS”, delivery model that reduces total cost of ownership for our clients; and
+•Expertise in HR and payroll with our technology backed by over 250 compliance experts and approximately 700 HR business professionals.
+
+Over 50% of our revenues are gained from our services beyond payroll processing.
+
+
+proactively aid our clients in navigating macroeconomic challenges, legislative changes, and other complexities they face
+
+help customers more effectively hire, engage, train, and retain top talent
+
+HR & compliance
+
+Paychex Flex® platform
+Paychex Flex is our proprietary HCM SaaS platform that provides seamless workforce management
+suite of solutions including recruiting, onboarding, HR, time and attendance and employee benefits. &  function-focused analytics
+
+contract with client generally do not containt specified contract period - Client retention should be a good KPI
+For fiscal 2023, client retention was in the range of 82% to 83% of our beginning client base.
+
+Management solutions:
+-Payroll processing solutions
+-Payroll tax administration solutions
+-Employee payment solutions
+-Regulatory compliance solutions
+-HR solutions
+-Retirement solutions administration
+-HR administration solutions
+
+
+We have one primary national competitor - Who ?
+
+
+focus on smid business
diff --git a/Finance/Ideas/TRAK.md b/Finance/Ideas/TRAK.md
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+++ b/Finance/Ideas/TRAK.md
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+
+## Ticker: NYSE:TRAK ( Formely Park City Group )
+
+## Qualitative Analysis
+
+Repositrak is a SaaS provider that facilitate compliance with FSMA. It collect and sorts all vendor compliance documents related to food safety, regulatory compliance, insurance ect... It partners with retailers, wholesalers, and product suppliers to help them source, vet, and transact with their suppliers in order to accelerate sales, control risks, and improve supply chain efficiencies, and source hard-to-get-things.
+
+services for multi-store retail chains, wholesalers and distributors, and their suppliers.
+
+It is the world's largest food traceability and regulatory compliance network
+
+Repositrak is the industry standard & largest platform of its kind
+
+The Company’s services are grouped in three application suites:
+(i) ReposiTrak MarketPlace (“MarketPlace”), encompassing the Company’s supplier discovery and B2B e-commerce solutions, which helps the Company’s customers find new suppliers;
+(ii) ReposiTrak Compliance and Food Safety (“Compliance and Food Safety”) solutions, which help the Company’s customers vet suppliers to mitigate the risk of doing business with these suppliers;
+(iii) ReposiTrak’s Supply Chain (“Supply Chain”) solutions, which help the Company’s customers to more efficiently manage their various transactions with their suppliers.
+
+Main customers  U.S. consumer retail sector for food
+
+## Catalyst: FSMA enforcement on January 20, 2026.
+
+What is the Food Safety Modernization Act:
+
+Aim to prevent foodborne illnesses by giving the FDA new authority to regulate the way foods are grown, harvested and processed. The law grants the FDA a number of new powers, including mandatory recall authority.
+
+Considered the first major piece of federal legislation addressing food safety since 1938.
+
+What documents are required ?: all records relating to the manufacture, processing, packing, distribution, receipt, holding, or importation
+
+ goals to enhance traceability, improve predictive analytics, respond more rapidly to outbreaks, address new business models, reduce contamination of food, and foster the development of stronger food safety cultures.
+
+one particular section of the Food Safety Modernization Act (“FSMA”), Section 204(d) which has to deal with traceability, was left incomplete when the regulation was enacted in 2011
+FDA been working to define exactly what traceability means and what is required to comply with that section of the law.
+
+As part of the 2020 “New Era” announcement, FDA published the Food Traceability List or (“FTL”). FDA used a “risk assessment model” to identify 16 of the highest-risk categories to start with. There is not a single grocery retailer who does not sell these items. These 16 categories represent thousands of individual items and FDA has made it clear in its communications the categories on the FTL are only the beginning. FDA states that they would “encourage the voluntary adoption of these practices industry-wide,” which means more categories are expected to be added over time.
+
+For traceability, FDA requires the capture, creation and sharing of specific key data elements (“KDE”) at each designated Critical Tracking Event (“CTE”) for every item and every shipment. FDA also requires the data be stored for two years and be retrievable and presented to them within 24 hours upon request. FSMA 204 is ultimately about recording all movement of inventories through the supply chain. The result is an enormous amount of data to manage. At the root, it is a supply chain data management issue, which is ReposiTrak’s core expertise. That’s why we’ve made it our goal to develop a traceability solution that’s easy, inexpensive and exceeds FDA’s requirements with the guidance of industry thought leaders gathered in the Food Traceability Leadership Consortium. As the largest connected network of food suppliers, wholesalers and retailers in the world, the ReposiTrak Traceability Network® is well positioned to provide end-to-end traceability to provide a safer food supply chain, tighten control on food waste and implement a food recall response that saves lives and money.
+
+## KPI's
+
+How many customers ?
+
+As of June 30, 2023, the Company employed a total of 69 employees.
+
+
+the renewal rates of subscriptions
+
+
+## OTher TBC
+
+Can be compared ? with UNH & obamacare/ACA introduced on march 23, 2010
+
+Management with industry experience: company funded to remedy a problem with their food company
diff --git a/Finance/Ideas/index.md b/Finance/Ideas/index.md
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--- /dev/null
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+[[ABR]]
+
+[[ASTS]]
+
+[[HE]]
+
+[[LPG]]
+
+[[LIN]]
+
+[[PAYX]]
+
+[[TRAK]]
+
+# Russia
+0486.hk - rusal
+SBER.ME - sberbank
+EPAM - US BASED - BELARUS FOUNDER
+BGEO.l - Bank georgia
+
+
+# rate cut play - why ?
+BLND
+RKT
+
+Prepare short MSTR / BTC setup
+
+DMRC
+- High short interest
+- working witht he big boys on digital watermark
+- might come in before election ? catalyst
+
+Regarding TIN, I’ve mentioned the only 2 ways to invest is Alphamin and MLX in Australia
+
+
+PVH - owns both calvin klein & tommy hilfinger
+Kering - owns Gucci
+
+
+vitalfarms
+Each box contains info about, and the webcam! address of the specific farm that sources the eggs.
+That's a warm and fuzzy empathy button click for female consumers.
+
+
+Compiling UAS/UAV names
+$avav $rtx $lilm $evtl $amba $achr $ktos $joby $noc  $cgy $keyw $lhx $gd $hon $lmt $tdy $tdg $rtx $txt $eh $pruia $parro $drshf $rcat $dpro $leg $blde $swks $jbl $irdm $kmtuy
+drone - RCAT
+
+@SnowKitten200 - BTU
+
+AI theme still young...
+
+Lingotto/Scolari, arguably one of the best investors in Europe of his generation - keep track of his trades
+Some interesting holdings of theirs $Gato, $VEON, $RRC, $PCOR, $mrna, $sbsw, $PARA, $FATH $INDV
+
+
+recious metals list
+
+Gold
+$GDX $GDXJ $NEM $GOLD $EGO $EQX $KGC $IAG $HMY
+
+Silver
+$SIL $SILJ $AEM $PAAS
+
+
+- AXT Inc. (AXTI): Manufactures compound semiconductor substrates, including gallium arsenide and indium phosphide. Category: Raw Materials and Components.
+
+- CEVA, Inc. (CEVA): Licenses wireless connectivity and smart sensing technologies. Category: IP, Design Software, and R&D Tools.
+
+- CVD Equipment Corporation (CVV): Designs and manufactures equipment for the development and production of advanced materials. Category: Manufacturing/Assembly Equipment and Services.
+
+- Aehr Test Systems (AEHR): Develops and manufactures systems for burning-in and testing logic, optical, and memory integrated circuits. Category: Testing and Packaging.
+
+- Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA): Develops high-definition video compression and image processing products. Category: Fabless Chip Designers.
+
+- Qorvo, Inc. (QRVO): Provides technologies and RF solutions for mobile, infrastructure, and aerospace/defense applications. Category: Integrated Device Manufacturers.
+
+- Wolfspeed, Inc. (WOLF): Specializes in silicon carbide and gallium nitride materials and devices. Category: Raw Materials and Components.
+
+- MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI): Develops and manufactures semiconductor products for data center, telecommunications, and industrial applications. Category: Integrated Device Manufacturers.
+
+- Tower Semiconductor (TSEM): Operates semiconductor foundries, manufacturing integrated circuits with geometries ranging from 1.0 to 0.13 micron. Category: Foundries.
+
+- Bruker Corporation (BRKR): Provides high-performance scientific instruments and high-value analytical and diagnostic solutions. Category: Manufacturing/Assembly Equipment and Services.
+
+- Onto Innovation (ONTO): Provides process control tools for semiconductor manufacturing, including inspection and metrology. Category: Manufacturing/Assembly Equipment and Services.
+
+- Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. (AEIS): Designs and manufactures power conversion, measurement, and control solutions for industrial applications. Category: Manufacturing/Assembly Equipment and Services.
+
+- ANSYS, Inc. (ANSS): Develops and markets engineering simulation software used for predicting how product designs will behave in real-world environments. Category: IP, Design Software, and R&D Tools.
+
+- Keysight Technologies (KEYS): Produces electronic design and test instrumentation. Category: IP, Design Software, and R&D Tools.
+
+- ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR): Develops wet processing technology and equipment for semiconductor devices. Category: Manufacturing/Assembly Equipment and Services.
+
+- Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR): Designs integrated power semiconductor solutions and power delivery architectures. Category: Integrated Device Manufacturers.
+
+- Microchip Technology Inc. (MCHP): Manufactures microcontroller, mixed-signal, analog, and Flash-IP integrated circuits. Category: Integrated Device Manufacturers.
+
+- Silicon Laboratories Inc. (SLAB): Designs and markets a range of silicon, software, and solutions for the Internet of Things, internet infrastructure, industrial automation, consumer, and automotive markets. Category: Fabless Chip Designers.
+
+- Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS): Produces semiconductor products for use in radio frequency and mobile communications systems. Category: Integrated Device Manufacturers.
+
+- Synaptics Incorporated (SYNA): Develops human interface solutions including touch, display, and biometrics products for a range of electronic devices. Category: Fabless Chip Designers.
+
+- Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI): Specializes in data conversion, signal processing, and power management technology. Category: Integrated Device Manufacturers.
+
+- Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS): Provides electronic design automation software that engineers use to design and test integrated circuits. Category: IP, Design Software, and R&D Tools.
+
+- Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD): Supplies industrial gases and related equipment to various industries including semiconductors. Category: Raw Materials and Components.
diff --git a/Finance/Macro.md b/Finance/Macro.md
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+To achive a "Soft-Landing" you need to preempt a big pick up in Job losses
+"Save the ponzi, save the plebs" -yellen
+Strength of Labor Market most important variable for 2024
+Initial jobless claim is a good indicator of when FED should start cutting
+
+
+Will fed pivot trigger another run up in inflation a la 1974-1982
+compare 74-76 to 22-24...
+
+
+
+EMification of usa markets
+
+Japanification of the past is very different than today, today it is real negative rate  & QE and covert debasement of currency
+like bresil market - stairs down, elevator up ...
+slow bleed , get inestor fustrated and out of nowhere it Rip up
+
+ just in time vs just in case ... in inflationary context
+
+
+ Oct'22-now is a big bear market rally ??
+
+
+ # No bueno list
+
+- USDJPY > 161, for the first time since 1986.Z
+
+
+
+former "safe heaven"
+- dividend stock
+- Utilities
+- Staple
+- Mag7 # want mag7 revenue to stop growing before shorting
+Why ? because bond will take that place Why? ... ? equity risk premium ?
+
+
+market correction likely this spring, but expectations is for equities to end the year higher
+
+# Current rally
+OCT 23 Rally started after Yellen QRA* issued 50B less bonds than the market expected topped at the start of april 24 with spy @ 525
+5% correction in april with low @ 493, triggered by hot CPI and now 15 of may new ATH
+
+' U.S. Treasury's decision to fund the U.S. deficit with shorter-duration bills rather than bonds.
+
+The Fed finally took action on QT Tapering and will shrink its Balance Sheet starting in June
+
+Freddie Mac filed a proposal with the FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) to enter the secondary mortgage market (i.e. home equity loans), which could potentially unlock $980bn in equity for homeowners. Furthermore, if Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mac enter the market too, that figure jumps to $3 trillion. -  covert fiscal stimulus plan for boomers
+
+# Inflation
+
+Fed needs to break labor market. I know there is a fantasy around this, but there is no escaping it. why? to get inflation back under control
+If you need to break the labor market, you probably won't do that before an elections though..
+
+Rational behind inflation second wave: productivity differentials (services/goods) and Granger causality (headline => wages => expectations => core)
+
+2 type of inflation
+wealthflation = price of financial assets,real estate, cost of private school...
+plebflation = what we are experiencing, epicerie ect..  (more cpi like?)
+
+
+Need to take notice of when number of 401K millionaires peak
+
+
+# Technicals Analysis
+
+S&P inflation adjusted did not hit new high...
+S&P infla adj peak was 21-22
+
+Equal weight S&p 500 not above its Dec23 high
+
+
+
+
+ultimately we are trying to protect ourselves from the Tamagotchi and her covert debasement of our wealth.
+
+Is crypto the equivalent of the german stock market during weimar ? probably yes
+4x QQQ but also kinda of a hedge against currency debasement
+
+
+
+. Maybe, just maybe, the main buyers of Precious Metals aren’t trying to hedge any Middle East escalation. Maybe the main buyers of Precious Metals are trying to hedge against Central Bank recklessness, Fiscal Profligacy and Tamagotchis.
+
+
+
+ loss of confidence in PMIs as a signal on the back of significant decoupling from PMI and nominal GDP growth ???
diff --git a/Finance/The Business Cycle.md b/Finance/The Business Cycle.md
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+In cycle downturns trend following is what to do.
+
+The cycle is better seen on the long term
+almost always at least weekly or montly data
+before 1900 better to use DOWJONES data
+
+Amplitude & Bartels for mesuring cycles
+Spectrograph use to see which cycle are dominant in the data
+
+The 42 month (182 week) cycle is the business cycle for equities, in bond is a little longer
+The 30yr cycle is the big one
+
+To trade cycle (business one) take a moving average about 1/4 the lenght of cycle and will catch these turn very effectively
+or for z score do 1/2 the lenght of cycle..., because want the mesure the ups & then the downs...
+or same lenght MAV to remove the "cycle" and get the trend !
+
+what is driving the 30 day cycle is always changing and hard to pick up, too much noise
+
+Will think we are mainly looking at a 4 yr cycle, 7yr cycle & a 30 yr cycle
+
+Look at look at the Dickey folder test and not the hearst exponent(JM Hurst Cycle)
+
+
+
+1790 to 1840                  The Bank of the United States Dominates
+
+1840 to 1875                  The Rise of the Railroads
+
+1875 to 1929                  The American Commercial Revolution
+
+1929 to 1964                  The First Magnificent Seven
+
+1964 to 1993                  Free Trade Leads to Global Expansion
+
+1993 to 2014                  The Rise of Fall of the Stock Market
+
+2014 to Present              Technology Stocks Take Over
diff --git a/Finance/The Trade Idea Thesis.md b/Finance/The Trade Idea Thesis.md
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+++ b/Finance/The Trade Idea Thesis.md
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+# The Trade Idea Thesis
+
+Quantitative Analysis: Sector & Stock Data
+
+Qualitative Analysis: The Story. Understanding the company business & commenting on it.
+
+KPI’s: Understanding the metrics that drive Revenue & Earnings
+
+Catalyst: Potential event that will drive alpha
+
+Time Horizon: Shortest time frame that will capture the catalyst(s)
+
+Price Target: Quant and Volatility analysis
+
+Trade Structure: Stock, options , spread trade ? Risk management ?
+
+
+## Quantitative Analysis
+
+Numbers, Numbers and Numbers !
+
+EPS0, EPS1, EPS2, PE1, PE2, EG1, EG2, PEG1, PEG2
+
+To work out these numbers you would only need stock price, reported EPS and forward looking EPS.
+
+## Qualitative Analysis
+
+Why inferior/superior earnings and/or revenue growth ?
+What are the drivers of growth ?
+What advantages/disadvantages in relation to the sector ?
+Will it continue ?
+What are the future catalysts ?
+Do you agree with the market ?
+Will you have conviction medium/long term if in the short term it goes against you ?
+Are you willing to buy/short more to back your idea ?
+What are the risks ?
+What changes the story, what changes your mind if you are wrong ?
+Who is the management and is it any good ?
+Who are the shareholders ?
+What will affect earnings ?
+What is the sector doing ?
+What is the product ?
+How do they fit in the supply chain ?
+Who are the suppliers ?
+Who are the customers ?
+Who is the competition ?
+What is the company share of the market ? Gaining / Losing ?
+
+
+## KPI’s
+
+Most sectors have different KPI’s, find them usually in presentations, earning calls or industry reports.
+
+
+# Catalysts
+
+Earnings, Buyback, splits, dividends, outlook
+Acquisition, Restructuring and Deals
+Legal & Regulatory issues
+Analyst upgrade / downgrade
+Credit upgrade / downgrade
+Short squeeze
+Conference & Events
+Products launches
diff --git a/Finance/index.md b/Finance/index.md
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--- /dev/null
+++ b/Finance/index.md
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+[[The Trade Idea Thesis]]
+
+
+
+[[Financial Terms]]
+
+[[Financial Axioms]]
+
+[[The Business Cycle]]
+
+[[Macro]]
+
+###  IDEAS VS RESEARCH VS NOTES
+
+[Ideas](/Ideas/index.md)
+
+[[Effect of GLP-1's on investment landscape]]
+
+https://kalshi.com/ - macro and pop culture casino.
+
+implement rainbow logic on charts
+
+
+
+every trade ask: 1- what would change my mind about the thesis ?
+		 2- plan where to cut if things go wrong or where to take profit
+
+
+Alexandre Harfouche
+
+
+sankey diagram for income statement
+
+
+Solami is best thought as 4xQQQ
+
+solana plan
+- follow VIP addresses
+- Bot MAV & 5min quick 10000X
+- make a token?
+
+Trend following is the most cost efficient hedge
+
+# indexes
+
+ OECD leading index too volatile to be usefull
+ Architecture Billings index...
+
+# SpiralCal
+
+Vix correlation to neap tide and low tides & moon
+
+works best when market emotionals
+
+
+since 1986 the return of writing puts on the SPX as outperformed Buy and hold in both returns and vol
+
+Earnings are a conincident indicator, foward looking statement are much more important
+
+Supercore (that’s core services ex housing) is what the FED like to watch (CPI)
+
+# Correlations
+Services inflation is the one bit most correlated to wages and unemployment.
+
+# Volatility
+
+If you look back at the history of volatility not every vol crush is followed by a major volatility spike but there is never a major vol spike unless its preceded by a vol crush.
+
+when vix curve goes into invertion it is one of the best signals !
+look at the standard deviation of the slope of the invertion >> you can pick bottoms like crazy
+
+
+
+QRA : issue bill its stimulant
+      issue bonds its removing liquidity from market
+
+The multifamily residential investment is effectively to buy dilapidated, low-yielding units, rehabilitate
+them, increase the rent, and then refinance the investment via government agency loans
+
+
+Policy maker want wealthflation bcs they can get tax proceeds and donor make alot of money
+
+
+April tax day...
+
+Sahm Rule = looking at the slope of an average
+
+
+seven types of income
+- Earned
+- Profit
+- Interest
+- Rental
+- Capital Gain (vs profit?)
+- Dividend
+- Royalties
+
+# GDP print
+what matter most is real fixed private investment.
+
+This is where you get factories, tools, computers, machinery, AI, and all other forms of technology and productivity-enhancing devices, software, etc. It’s the source of real wage growth, medical advancements, better quality of life, higher standards of living, and so one.
+
+Increased only 2.7 % over last 2 years which is below the GDP # meaning recent rate of GDP increases is unsubstainables - + laggin its pre covid trend
+
+For last 7 Quarters Real governement purshases is growing at a faster rate than private consumption
+ the private economy—which is all that matters since it’s the only part that’s productive—is stalling out - more evident when looks at real fixed private investements
+
+  The federal debt increased almost $600 billion in Q1, in exchange for GDP increasing about $300 billion.
+
+In other words, the federal government is “buying” only 53 cents of “growth” for every dollar it goes into debt
+
+
+https://theconversation.com/why-central-banks-are-too-powerful-and-have-created-our-inflation-crisis-by-the-banking-expert-who-pioneered-quantitative-easing-201158