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# GDP print
what matter most is real fixed private investment.
This is where you get factories, tools, computers, machinery, AI, and all other forms of technology and productivity-enhancing devices, software, etc. It’s the source of real wage growth, medical advancements, better quality of life, higher standards of living, and so one.
Increased only 2.7 % over last 2 years which is below the GDP # meaning recent rate of GDP increases is unsubstainables - + laggin its pre covid trend
For last 7 Quarters Real governement purshases is growing at a faster rate than private consumption
the private economy—which is all that matters since it’s the only part that’s productive—is stalling out - more evident when looks at real fixed private investements
The federal debt increased almost $600 billion in Q1, in exchange for GDP increasing about $300 billion.
In other words, the federal government is “buying” only 53 cents of “growth” for every dollar it goes into debt
# PMI jul
Service PMI employement came in at 46.1 confirming a 5 month contraction that is intensifying & confirming Jan print was dead cat bounce
# Macro
- USDJPY > 161, for the first time since 1986.Z
- Freddie Mac filed a proposal with the FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) to enter the secondary mortgage market (i.e. home equity loans), which could potentially unlock $980bn in equity for homeowners. Furthermore, if Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mac enter the market too, that figure jumps to $3 trillion. - covert fiscal stimulus plan for boomers
- Israel-Iran war
- ukraine
- Citi group economic surprise index in negative territory since may, will lead to 10y t-note trend down
- Mag7 sentiment ATH
- Canada UR back to GFC levels
- As corporate revenues get under pressure, volume & unit sales protection will superseede any other consideration (at top line) & margin protection will super seede at bottom line. Will lead to short period of defalation in goods and services. If labor weakness added to the mix people will pile into rates quickly.
- existing home for sale above 21,22,23 lvls
- PAYX/SPY ratio
OCT 23 Rally started after Yellen QRA* issued 50B less bonds than the market expected topped at the start of april 24 with spy @ 525
5% correction in april with low @ 493, triggered by hot CPI and now 15 of may new ATH
' U.S. Treasury's decision to fund the U.S. deficit with shorter-duration bills rather than bonds.
Oct'22-now is a big bear market rally ??
01/08/24 - Huge selloff started: Why ? - valuation became unatractive ?
- israel/iran ?
- only slowdown priced ? not recession yet ...
EMification of usa markets
Japanification of the past is very different than today, today it is real negative rate & QE and covert debasement of currency
like bresil market - stairs down, elevator up ...
slow bleed , get inestor fustrated and out of nowhere it Rip up
Will fed pivot trigger another run up in inflation a la 1974-1982
compare 74-76 to 22-24...
To achive a "Soft-Landing" you need to preempt a big pick up in Job losses
"Save the ponzi, save the plebs" -yellen
Strength of Labor Market most important variable for 2024
Initial jobless claim is a good indicator of when FED should start cutting
Rational behind inflation second wave: productivity differentials (services/goods) and Granger causality (headline => wages => expectations => core)
former "safe heaven"
- dividend stock
- Utilities
- Staple
- Mag7 # want mag7 revenue to stop growing before shorting
Why ? because bond will take that place Why? ... ? equity risk premium ?
Is crypto the equivalent of the german stock market during weimar ? probably yes
4xQQQ but also kinda of a hedge against currency debasement
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