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[[Gross Domestic Products (GDP)]]
[[ISM Purshasing Manager Index (PMI)]]
[[University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (UMCSI)]]
[[Employement Situation Report (ESR)]]
[[Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)]]
[[Building Permits Report (BPR)]]
[[Euro Econ Sentiment (ESI)]]
3 types of economic indicator
- Lagging Past (lag 3-6 months)
- Coincident Present
- Leading Future (lag 6-12 months
One amateur mistake is to use Coincident indicators to initiate postions
Confirmation Indicators: Coincident & Lagging indicators
They either confirm or deny our views on the prospects of US GDP Growth, that we have already obtained from Leading Indicators, 6-12 month earlier.
Supercore (that’s core services ex housing) is what the FED like to watch (CPI)
Services inflation is the one bit most correlated to wages and unemployment.
OECD leading index too volatile to be usefull
Architecture Billings index...
Earnings are a conincident indicator, foward looking statement are much more important
QRA : issue bill its stimulant
issue bonds its removing liquidity from market
Need to take notice of when number of 401K millionaires peak
2 type of inflation
wealthflation = price of financial assets,real estate, cost of private school...
plebflation = what we are experiencing, epicerie ect.. (more cpi like?)
# Industrial Productions Numbers
- Published around 16th of each month
- Coincident Indicator
- Lag PMI by ~6month
- Monthly raw volumes of goods produced by industrial firms
- Used inconjuction with industry capacity estimate to calculate capacity utilisation ratio for each line of business
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