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[Fundamentals](/Fundamentals/index.md)
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[[Current]]
# Dynamics and logic
probability = succesful outcomes / total outcomes
odds = succesful outcome : unsucessful outcomes
1:(1/p-1) where p expressed as decimals
Notably because of dividends, Healthcare & Utilities are the refuge in low growth environment
if opinion on forex express it via stocks
If started positon half of max position can cut stp loss by half
Start by analysing Volatility ATR of the stock to set initial hard stp loss and soft target
Positive correlation between Nominal GDP growth rate & Nominal interest rates
things that do well in deflationary env - Utilities, Consumer staples, Low P/E stocks (not growth)
Every company in theory if not shriking should grow at least at GDP + Inflation
Inflation - 2%
GDP - 3%
5%
then assume the growth of the total TAM fo the business lets say 3%
8% growth is now the baseline, where you get the multiples, multiples the company should trade at
8% * 2 = 16 should be at 16x times multiples
# COSTLY ERROR
WTF WHY ARE THE CHART & BID NOT THE SAME AS MARKET PRICE IN ACCOUNT TAB ???
WTF I TRADED FUTURES THINKING I HAD LIVE DATA BUT WAS DELAYED 10min - FUCK 2379$ error would would have been a profit otherwise !
Solid thesis is not a hedge, exucution is
Technical / Momentum Setups
This is where price action becomes process, not art or retail mythology.
Technical setups matter. But not because you drew a flag on a chart and called it conviction.
I use trendlines. But not in isolation. I care when a trendline coincides with:
Anchored VWAPs from prior catalysts (earnings, guidance, gap days)
Volume areas that absorbed selling during prior stress
Key Moving Averages
Dealer hedging zones / known gamma pivots
Where price has respected it multiple times on volume
In context, a trendline isn't necessarily a signal. It's a potential decision zone, where flow either confirms or rejects. It prompts the question: are sellers still in control, or has the tape shifted? Are passive bids starting to take the lead?
Here's how I classify high-probability technical setups:
Risk Ignition: Multi-day coiling range after a directional impulse → sharp unwind of weak positioning = asymmetry.
Reclaims: Name undercuts prior low, flushes weak hands, then reclaims the level on volume. Your signal isn't the low, it's the acceptance above it.
Range expansion: Tight tape, then expansion into space, especially if supported by flows or macro backdrop.
Trend retest holds: Multi-week trendlines respected on a low-vol pullback into macro risk (CPI/FOMC/NFP), followed by a reclaim = risk-on signal.
What matters most is how the price trades at those levels. Not that it gets there, but what happens when it does.
I guess what I am trying to say is that strong hands buy structure and weak hands chase. Your job is to lean into those control zones, where you can define risk, size with intent, and scale into conviction when the market confirms.
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