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# Trades Watchlist
- MO/PM - BUY DIP ???
- [[wiki4:LIN|LIN]] - Long when turnaround in ISM PMI
- [[wiki4:AMT|AMT]] - Proxy for trading rates (yields)
- BG - Long Inflation trade - BUY DIP
- BTU - DEFINE & BUY DIP
- HE - hwaian electric (turnaround) ?
- Short UPS / FDX
- Short BYND - OPTION TRADE SINCE HARD TO FIND SHARES
- Short NSRGY
- LONG POAHY - Euro rearmement bet
- Short PE (, BX, APO) party over
- why? Credit where danger currently is, why?
- short CVNA
- LONG UURAF (biggest weight citrini...)
- INTC - most obvious market long
- Long ZM
[[wiki4:CCCX|CCCX]]
- Pure garbage: $OKLO, $RGTI, $CVNA $HOOD $DASH $PLTR $SMR $IONQ $ELF $DUOL BBAI
- PTON - sleepy bullish
- U - 50-60 PT
- [[wiki4:DD|DD]] - buyback story - bullish
- [[wiki4:MNMD|MNMD]]
- [[wiki4:ROKU|ROKU]]
- [[wiki4:SATL|SATL]]
- short CRWV
- LONG CEG AT 200SMA
WBD sell jan 20 put @ 1.10$
WBD Buy dec 25 cal @ 0.75$
- Long OMDA
- MSOS or GTBIF
- Short CPB
- [[wiki4:RIG|RIG]]
- [[wiki4:LASR|LASR]]
- prepare silver short like HL as hedge but reverse turn around trade eventually
- YLLXF
- XOM 145 PT
- SU
- [[wiki4:HON|HON]]
- Long DUOL - valuation reset eps 25x pivot
- short BAH (consulants)
- long cflt alab
space $RDW $SATL $FLY $VOYG
memory - MU, WDC, SNDK , 000660
Bullish transport - chrobinson ,old dominion, jb hunter
- midterm VIX CALLS
# World View
Did the bull end the second week of October
another leg for silver to 80 / 100 ?
Papermarket & physicals shenanigans
midterms - Q1 usually is OK, with the weakness coming in Q2 and Q3 - see chart {{local:img/midterms.png|midterms seasonality}}
the subsequent quarters after Midterms are the strongest
K-shaped everything...
2026 will be the years for:
Defense
space tech
Healthcare & Energy
commodities, real stuff
materials
Riots ? purple spring finally ?
slow bleed of AI buildout trade
Will bio tech continue to lead
Fannie/Freddie IPO ?
Us midterms cycle 3mar-3nov
CCII - blockchain.com spac ?
GOLD 1934 playbook? - Bessent "monetising the balance sheet assets"
MSTR BTC risk
Oil Shock risk
# Sector & Stock views
# Notes & Observations on Economic landscape
- Ai "god" momentum & service sector apocalypse
- no hiring no firing mrkt - Unemployement from AI risk
- K shaped everything - chart mag7 vs 493 others
- Will fed pivot trigger another run up in inflation a la 1974-1982 - compare 74-76 to 22-24... {{local:img/CPI-74-82vstoday.jpg}}
- Inflation still historically high - Trump admin is inflationary
- If Germany truly intends to build the "strongest conventional army in Europe" with €650B over 5 years, there is no path to achieve this without Volkswagen Group's manufacturing capacity
- The Russell is in the process of having a proper breakout that will be a signal people look back on retrospectively similar to 2021
- Collapse of Russia at all cost
- (2028-2030?) handset to headset transition
- copper deficit by 2026 ?
What we saw in the last couple of weeks was likely a preview of a wider “unwind” that may (or may not!) take place later down the line.
Ai buildout energy high quality : GEV, CEG, VRT
- Canada being greeked - Greeks had borrowed money from the global markets in order to buy houses massively. They thought that house ownership somehow, someone, somewhere would produce goods and services for them
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/the-housing-market-is-no-longer-a-wealth-building-engine-as-home-prices-continue-to-slump/ar-AA1LyI8C?apiversion=v2&noservercache=1&domshim=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcseo=1&batchservertelemetry=1&noservertelemetry=1
https://www.newsweek.com/majority-companies-hiking-prices-cover-tariffs-kpmg-10840802
- https://redlib.privacyredirect.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1of1r16/short_quantum_ionq_qbts_rgti_qubt_btq_laes_cccx/
China planning to elevate Gold to HQLA(High-Quality Liquid Assets) status for repo and infrastructure funding for BRICS nations
Take a peak at Carvana’s, Apollo’s, Owl’s, KKR’s, Blackstone’s, or anyone else in the private credit space. The stink of that sector is starting to become over bearing and is leaking. One of these names is going to take it on the chin hard at some point in the next 6 - 12 months, no one knows who. Apollo is probably the best in the space, but Enron’s collapse crushed the good utilities as well. Maybe Apollo is the best and won’t suffer too much, they’re still gonna get taken down.
Burry's got NVDA 12/17/2027 110P
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/eu-yields-pressure-automakers-it-rethinks-2035-combustion-car-ban-2025-12-15/
https://www.inboundlogistics.com/articles/pedal-to-the-metal-general-motors-orders-suppliers-to-exit-china-supply-chains/
# Citrini
We think healthcare will be ground zero for phase 2 of AI, expect significant improvement in speed and efficiency in identifing drug candidate will led to significant tailwind for the drug devellopement supply chain.
# Sleepy Sol
chop around for a bit, puke in February or March down to somewhere between 6300 - 6500. Depending on how aggressively tech is puking, as that will lead us lower, will determine if we stop there and then rally up to 7,200 - 7,500 by early 2027, or if we’re done done levels of killed.
FIAT CURRENCY DEBASEMENT END GOAL
end 26 HAS 100-115$ PT
sleepy sol - RDDT 2027 250 calls on the next touch of 141.
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