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authornic <ra@afu.re>2024-08-09 12:25:47 -0400
committernic <ra@afu.re>2024-08-09 12:25:47 -0400
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Auto from nzxt - Fri 09 Aug 2024 12:25:47 PM EDT
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[[University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (UMCSI)]]
+[[Employement Situation Report (ESR)]]
+[[Building Permits Report (BPR)]]
+[[Euro Econ Sentiment (ESI)]]
3 types of economic indicator
- Lagging Past (lag 3-6 months)
- Coincident Present
- Leading Future (lag 6-12 months
+One amateur mistake is to use Coincident indicators to initiate postions
+Confirmation Indicators: Coincident & Lagging indicators
+They either confirm or deny our views on the prospects of US GDP Growth, that we have already obtained from Leading Indicators, 6-12 month earlier.
Supercore (that’s core services ex housing) is what the FED like to watch (CPI)
Services inflation is the one bit most correlated to wages and unemployment.
@@ -34,4 +40,9 @@ Need to take notice of when number of 401K millionaires peak
wealthflation = price of financial assets,real estate, cost of private school...
plebflation = what we are experiencing, epicerie ect.. (more cpi like?)
-
+# Industrial Productions Numbers
+- Published around 16th of each month
+- Coincident Indicator
+- Lag PMI by ~6month
+- Monthly raw volumes of goods produced by industrial firms
+- Used inconjuction with industry capacity estimate to calculate capacity utilisation ratio for each line of business