Auto from nzxt - Sun 04 Aug 2024 04:39:32 PM EDT

7 files changed, 67 insertions, 133 deletions

diff --git a/Finance/Current.md b/Finance/Current.md
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+# GDP print
+what matter most is real fixed private investment.
+This is where you get factories, tools, computers, machinery, AI, and all other forms of technology and productivity-enhancing devices, software, etc. It’s the source of real wage growth, medical advancements, better quality of life, higher standards of living, and so one.
+Increased only 2.7 % over last 2 years which is below the GDP # meaning recent rate of GDP increases is unsubstainables - + laggin its pre covid trend
+For last 7 Quarters Real governement purshases is growing at a faster rate than private consumption
+ the private economy—which is all that matters since it’s the only part that’s productive—is stalling out - more evident when looks at real fixed private investements
+The federal debt increased almost $600 billion in Q1, in exchange for GDP increasing about $300 billion.
+In other words, the federal government is “buying” only 53 cents of “growth” for every dollar it goes into debt
+
+# Macro
+- USDJPY > 161, for the first time since 1986.Z
+- Freddie Mac filed a proposal with the FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) to enter the secondary mortgage market (i.e. home equity loans), which could potentially unlock $980bn in equity for homeowners. Furthermore, if Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mac enter the market too, that figure jumps to $3 trillion. -  covert fiscal stimulus plan for boomers
+
+OCT 23 Rally started after Yellen QRA* issued 50B less bonds than the market expected topped at the start of april 24 with spy @ 525
+5% correction in april with low @ 493, triggered by hot CPI and now 15 of may new ATH
+
+' U.S. Treasury's decision to fund the U.S. deficit with shorter-duration bills rather than bonds.
+Oct'22-now is a big bear market rally ??
+
+
+EMification of usa markets
+Japanification of the past is very different than today, today it is real negative rate  & QE and covert debasement of currency
+like bresil market - stairs down, elevator up ...
+slow bleed , get inestor fustrated and out of nowhere it Rip up
+
+
+Will fed pivot trigger another run up in inflation a la 1974-1982
+compare 74-76 to 22-24...
+
+To achive a "Soft-Landing" you need to preempt a big pick up in Job losses
+"Save the ponzi, save the plebs" -yellen
+Strength of Labor Market most important variable for 2024
+Initial jobless claim is a good indicator of when FED should start cutting
+
+Rational behind inflation second wave: productivity differentials (services/goods) and Granger causality (headline => wages => expectations => core)
+
+
+
+former "safe heaven"
+- dividend stock
+- Utilities
+- Staple
+- Mag7 # want mag7 revenue to stop growing before shorting
+Why ? because bond will take that place Why? ... ? equity risk premium ?
+
+Is crypto the equivalent of the german stock market during weimar ? probably yes
+4xQQQ but also kinda of a hedge against currency debasement
+
+
diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/Axioms.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/Axioms.md
index ea71868..0241ebd 100644
--- a/Finance/Fundamentals/Axioms.md
+++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/Axioms.md
@@ -40,3 +40,6 @@ Twitter: when a group of low IQ retards start shouting loudly in unison, they do
 
 Positioning is everything
 
+During a bear market, monitor the outperformers in significantly underperforming industries. They will be the best stocks of the coming bull.
+When the bear gives way to the bull, buy the companies that IPO’d during the bear market.
+
diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/Indicators.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/Indicators.md
index ae60eeb..335949f 100644
--- a/Finance/Fundamentals/Indicators.md
+++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/Indicators.md
@@ -28,4 +28,10 @@ Earnings are a conincident indicator, foward looking statement are much more imp
 QRA : issue bill its stimulant
       issue bonds its removing liquidity from market
 
+Need to take notice of when number of 401K millionaires peak
+
+2 type of inflation
+wealthflation = price of financial assets,real estate, cost of private school...
+plebflation = what we are experiencing, epicerie ect..  (more cpi like?)
+
 
diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/Technical_analysis.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/Technical_analysis.md
index 78f7b9b..bd9ddf6 100644
--- a/Finance/Fundamentals/Technical_analysis.md
+++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/Technical_analysis.md
@@ -16,3 +16,6 @@ downtrend = 8 EMA < 21 EMA < 34 EMA < 50 SMA < 100 SMA < 200 SMA
 
 Sahm Rule = looking at the slope of an average
 
+
+sankey diagram for income statement
+
diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/index.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/index.md
index bfde47c..2063a7d 100644
--- a/Finance/Fundamentals/index.md
+++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/index.md
@@ -6,10 +6,14 @@
 
 [[Financial_Dictonary]]
 
+[[The Business Cycle]]
+
 [[Option Strategies]]
 
 [[Technical_analysis]]
 
+"" When I want to raise cash I put it into bershire hataways "" ....
+
 
 
 Q1 = Janvier,Fevrier,Mars
diff --git a/Finance/Macro.md b/Finance/Macro.md
index a925ac8..139597f 100644
--- a/Finance/Macro.md
+++ b/Finance/Macro.md
@@ -1,87 +1,2 @@
-To achive a "Soft-Landing" you need to preempt a big pick up in Job losses
-"Save the ponzi, save the plebs" -yellen
-Strength of Labor Market most important variable for 2024
-Initial jobless claim is a good indicator of when FED should start cutting
 
 
-
-Will fed pivot trigger another run up in inflation a la 1974-1982
-compare 74-76 to 22-24...
-
-
-
-EMification of usa markets
-
-Japanification of the past is very different than today, today it is real negative rate  & QE and covert debasement of currency
-like bresil market - stairs down, elevator up ...
-slow bleed , get inestor fustrated and out of nowhere it Rip up
-
- just in time vs just in case ... in inflationary context
-
-
- Oct'22-now is a big bear market rally ??
-
-
- # No bueno list
-
-- USDJPY > 161, for the first time since 1986.Z
-
-
-
-former "safe heaven"
-- dividend stock
-- Utilities
-- Staple
-- Mag7 # want mag7 revenue to stop growing before shorting
-Why ? because bond will take that place Why? ... ? equity risk premium ?
-
-
-market correction likely this spring, but expectations is for equities to end the year higher
-
-# Current rally
-OCT 23 Rally started after Yellen QRA* issued 50B less bonds than the market expected topped at the start of april 24 with spy @ 525
-5% correction in april with low @ 493, triggered by hot CPI and now 15 of may new ATH
-
-' U.S. Treasury's decision to fund the U.S. deficit with shorter-duration bills rather than bonds.
-
-The Fed finally took action on QT Tapering and will shrink its Balance Sheet starting in June
-
-Freddie Mac filed a proposal with the FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) to enter the secondary mortgage market (i.e. home equity loans), which could potentially unlock $980bn in equity for homeowners. Furthermore, if Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mac enter the market too, that figure jumps to $3 trillion. -  covert fiscal stimulus plan for boomers
-
-# Inflation
-
-Fed needs to break labor market. I know there is a fantasy around this, but there is no escaping it. why? to get inflation back under control
-If you need to break the labor market, you probably won't do that before an elections though..
-
-Rational behind inflation second wave: productivity differentials (services/goods) and Granger causality (headline => wages => expectations => core)
-
-2 type of inflation
-wealthflation = price of financial assets,real estate, cost of private school...
-plebflation = what we are experiencing, epicerie ect..  (more cpi like?)
-
-
-Need to take notice of when number of 401K millionaires peak
-
-
-# Technicals Analysis
-
-S&P inflation adjusted did not hit new high...
-S&P infla adj peak was 21-22
-
-Equal weight S&p 500 not above its Dec23 high
-
-
-
-
-ultimately we are trying to protect ourselves from the Tamagotchi and her covert debasement of our wealth.
-
-Is crypto the equivalent of the german stock market during weimar ? probably yes
-4x QQQ but also kinda of a hedge against currency debasement
-
-
-
-. Maybe, just maybe, the main buyers of Precious Metals aren’t trying to hedge any Middle East escalation. Maybe the main buyers of Precious Metals are trying to hedge against Central Bank recklessness, Fiscal Profligacy and Tamagotchis.
-
-
-
- loss of confidence in PMIs as a signal on the back of significant decoupling from PMI and nominal GDP growth ???
diff --git a/Finance/index.md b/Finance/index.md
index 8eeaf50..14de5eb 100644
--- a/Finance/index.md
+++ b/Finance/index.md
@@ -1,69 +1,23 @@
 
-[Fundamentals](/Fundamentals/index.md)     + definitions + theory like business cycle + spiral cat theory ... + History??
+[Fundamentals](/Fundamentals/index.md)
 
 [Research](/Research/index.md)
 
+[[Current]]
 
 
 
 
-
-
-
-# or defenitions more quick access here  - call it Financial_Dictionary
-
-Research ? Ideas(rename one to tickers??) + Themes + strategies
-
-Current? + dairy ?
-
--------------
-
-[[The Business Cycle]]
-
-[[Macro]]
-
-
 Alexandre Harfouche
 
-sankey diagram for income statement
-
-
-# GDP print
-what matter most is real fixed private investment.
-
-This is where you get factories, tools, computers, machinery, AI, and all other forms of technology and productivity-enhancing devices, software, etc. It’s the source of real wage growth, medical advancements, better quality of life, higher standards of living, and so one.
-
-Increased only 2.7 % over last 2 years which is below the GDP # meaning recent rate of GDP increases is unsubstainables - + laggin its pre covid trend
-
-For last 7 Quarters Real governement purshases is growing at a faster rate than private consumption
- the private economy—which is all that matters since it’s the only part that’s productive—is stalling out - more evident when looks at real fixed private investements
-
-  The federal debt increased almost $600 billion in Q1, in exchange for GDP increasing about $300 billion.
-
-In other words, the federal government is “buying” only 53 cents of “growth” for every dollar it goes into debt
-
-
 https://theconversation.com/why-central-banks-are-too-powerful-and-have-created-our-inflation-crisis-by-the-banking-expert-who-pioneered-quantitative-easing-201158A
 
 
-
-
-
-"" When I want to raise cash I put it into bershire hataways "" ....
-
-
-
-# stock picking advices
-- During a bear market, monitor the outperformers in significantly underperforming industries. They will be the best stocks of the coming bull.
-- When the bear gives way to the bull, buy the companies that IPO’d during the bear market.
-
 Money (the kind worth having in any case) is usually downstream of character and relationships
 
 Character (mental/physical health and skill) —> relationships —> wealth
 
 @SnowKitten200 - BTU
 
-AI theme still young...
-
 Lingotto/Scolari, arguably one of the best investors in Europe of his generation - keep track of his trades
 Some interesting holdings of theirs $Gato, $VEON, $RRC, $PCOR, $mrna, $sbsw, $PARA, $FATH $INDV