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| author | mac <ra@afu.re> | 2025-09-02 15:36:59 -0400 |
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| committer | mac <ra@afu.re> | 2025-09-02 15:36:59 -0400 |
| commit | 08034942518ab5b59c0f728861aee491c8ddbf07 (patch) | |
| tree | 79e6597c755a0958ec3a8f7fe35852cad7e57a2f /Trading.md | |
| parent | eaf3d84f03ab1b51ffc15767d15e17114ed23d79 (diff) | |
Auto from nzxt - Tue 02 Sep 2025 03:36:59 PM EDT
Diffstat (limited to 'Trading.md')
| -rw-r--r-- | Trading.md | 99 |
1 files changed, 9 insertions, 90 deletions
@@ -5,110 +5,29 @@ - WBA - Long Turnaround - AMT - Long as proxy for short rates - BG - Long Inflation trade -- NVDA - Short turnaround - Has gone nowhere since June 2024! Get over it. Move on. You can make money from other stocks too PT:70-85$ by June - ASTS - Long Beta momentum ? -- NKE - Long -- UBER - Jan26 Risk/Reversal - Short $72.5 Puts, Long $115 Calls for $0.59 net credit -- TEMPUS AI (TEM) - Jan26 Risk/Reversal - Short $45 Puts, Long $100 Calls for 0$ -- NEBIUS (NBIS) Jan26 Risk/Reversal - Short $30 puts, Long $60 calls -- ARM (long via Mar26 $120 calls) - AMT - LONG BOND PROXY PLAY -- Jan26 $31/$42 SLV - short KLC (bearcave) -- bullish CRCL if pullback -- long VZ & AT&T -- PSIX as datacenter trade ? - HE - hwaian electric (turnaround) ? -- MSFT 8/15 540C (Paid 3.3) LORDFED - CEG & deal with kipper? californian companies (catalyst) -If the Nixon shock ushered in the end of Bretton Woods 1.0, yesterday — probably to be named in history “Trump shock” — ushered in the end of Bretton Woods 2.0. +# Market Themes (eventually separate into current and future?) +- handset to headset transition +- Ad agencies to be hurt by GenAI (IPG, OMC, WPP) +- USD Debasement +- GAG (trump admin won't take care of the deficit, it was just a big joke, they will pump bags so DC can service more debt) -positive catalyst for end of "correction": new debt ceiling which will provide an injection of liquidity, - -NFP next Friday (3rd July), 90-day pause deadline on reciprocal tariffs (9th July), CPI (15th July), FOMC (30th July), NFP (1st August), CPI (12th August) and the 90-day pause deadline on 145% tariffs for China (14th August. - - -- Debasement theme "this is africa" - -# We dont know when bottom -astrology say's should be end march, lot volatility sideway trading april/may then FED does something June then New moon in cancer end june market goes into recovery - -GAG: focus on pre-vote SPACS - SPACs, the downside is the Trust Floor (free options) - -CANNABIS RESCHEDULING ? - Mike Tyson got on Fox News pleading for relaxed marijuana regulation - -GAG THEME - -Basel3 - 1 july 25 -basel3 reclassified gold as Tier 1 asset, on par with cash and bonds -project 2025 & gold - - -China taking over Taiwan - Trade war in focus now - -DEFLATION ? - -ACCUMULATE BONDS ? I wouldn't take any profits, we may end up at 3% on 10y once people see deflation as more likely than stagflation - texaskitty - -real austerity (fix aka no QE ) or QE - - -eurofag to ban XMR by 2027 - -the whole,we are going to take care of the deficit by the trump admin was a big joke, only thing they can do is pump bags, DC need the market higher so can service more debt. # citrini We think healthcare will be ground zero for phase 2 of AI, expect significant improvement in speed and efficiency in identifing drug candidate will led to significant tailwind for the drug devellopement supply chain. +# sleepy sol -# sleepysol - -pointing to down trend in durable good (BEA), not good mean deflation (worst case scenario?) , as to do with restrain on immigration... - -things that do well in deflationary env - Utilities, Consumer staples, Low P/E stocks (not growth) - -buy healthcare, energy, utilities - - -24 april - -if bullish DXY should be long risk assets, sell defensive sell gold -if belives only a bounce, buy risk asset and then dump them into cash or gold and wait for next DXY leg down - - -Deflation is coming - earnings revison down told us - -if bearish DXY - CVNA will roll over - - -WHEN DXY BOTTOM GO LONG RISK ASSETS - - -# Mike Wilson - Morgan stanley - King Contra Monkey -7 april - "4700 (SPY) next level of support" -12 may - "Our 6,500 S&P 500 year-end target is very much intact" - - -ad agencies like Interpublic Group (NYSE: IPG — $9.38 billion), Omnicom Group (NYSE: OMC — $14.6 billion), and WPP plc (NYSE: WPP — $7.72 billion) may suffer as more companies use Generative AI for their advertising campaigns. - - -commodities ready to explode higher ? -every economically sensitive cyclical is moving up when the high beta stuff is flushing. - - - handset-to-headset transition - meta bought into EssilorLuxotica - - - the trend of direct AI-powered answers will become a headwind for other websites like Yelp (NYSE: YELP — $2.18 billion), Tripadvisor (NASDAQ: TRIP — $2.36 billion), NerdWallet (NASDAQ: NRDS — $789 million), and companies like Taboola (NASDAQ: TBLA — $1.17 billion), which provides programmatic ads on publisher websites. +FIAT CURRENCY DEBASEMENT END GOAL +Long end of every gov is starting to collapse as inflation or idea of inflation gets into the system +if energy does not work in the next few weeks, will not work until q2 2026 ... ? - I think Robinhood is very important, as I don’t think you can consider any momentum stock seriously as a long until Robinhood breaks. sleepy sol - RDDT 2027 250 calls on the next touch of 141. - - - -FIAT CURRENCY DEBASEMENT END GOAL |