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diff --git a/Finance/The Business Cycle.md b/Finance/The Business Cycle.md deleted file mode 100644 index 451ae7c..0000000 --- a/Finance/The Business Cycle.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1,37 +0,0 @@ -In cycle downturns trend following is what to do. - -The cycle is better seen on the long term -almost always at least weekly or montly data -before 1900 better to use DOWJONES data - -Amplitude & Bartels for mesuring cycles -Spectrograph use to see which cycle are dominant in the data - -The 42 month (182 week) cycle is the business cycle for equities, in bond is a little longer -The 30yr cycle is the big one - -To trade cycle (business one) take a moving average about 1/4 the lenght of cycle and will catch these turn very effectively -or for z score do 1/2 the lenght of cycle..., because want the mesure the ups & then the downs... -or same lenght MAV to remove the "cycle" and get the trend ! - -what is driving the 30 day cycle is always changing and hard to pick up, too much noise - -Will think we are mainly looking at a 4 yr cycle, 7yr cycle & a 30 yr cycle - -Look at look at the Dickey folder test and not the hearst exponent(JM Hurst Cycle) - - - -1790 to 1840 The Bank of the United States Dominates - -1840 to 1875 The Rise of the Railroads - -1875 to 1929 The American Commercial Revolution - -1929 to 1964 The First Magnificent Seven - -1964 to 1993 Free Trade Leads to Global Expansion - -1993 to 2014 The Rise of Fall of the Stock Market - -2014 to Present Technology Stocks Take Over |