Auto from nzxt - Fri 09 Aug 2024 01:24:32 PM EDT

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-In cycle downturns trend following is what to do.
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-The cycle is better seen on the long term
-almost always at least weekly or montly data
-before 1900 better to use DOWJONES data
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-Amplitude & Bartels for mesuring cycles
-Spectrograph use to see which cycle are dominant in the data
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-The 42 month (182 week) cycle is the business cycle for equities, in bond is a little longer
-The 30yr cycle is the big one
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-To trade cycle (business one) take a moving average about 1/4 the lenght of cycle and will catch these turn very effectively
-or for z score do 1/2 the lenght of cycle..., because want the mesure the ups & then the downs...
-or same lenght MAV to remove the "cycle" and get the trend !
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-what is driving the 30 day cycle is always changing and hard to pick up, too much noise
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-Will think we are mainly looking at a 4 yr cycle, 7yr cycle & a 30 yr cycle
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-Look at look at the Dickey folder test and not the hearst exponent(JM Hurst Cycle)
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-1790 to 1840                  The Bank of the United States Dominates
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-1840 to 1875                  The Rise of the Railroads
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-1875 to 1929                  The American Commercial Revolution
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-1929 to 1964                  The First Magnificent Seven
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-1964 to 1993                  Free Trade Leads to Global Expansion
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-1993 to 2014                  The Rise of Fall of the Stock Market
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-2014 to Present              Technology Stocks Take Over