Auto from nzxt - Fri 09 Aug 2024 01:24:32 PM EDT

1 files changed, 37 insertions, 0 deletions

diff --git a/Finance/Fundamentals/The Business Cycle.md b/Finance/Fundamentals/The Business Cycle.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..451ae7c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/Finance/Fundamentals/The Business Cycle.md
@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+In cycle downturns trend following is what to do.
+
+The cycle is better seen on the long term
+almost always at least weekly or montly data
+before 1900 better to use DOWJONES data
+
+Amplitude & Bartels for mesuring cycles
+Spectrograph use to see which cycle are dominant in the data
+
+The 42 month (182 week) cycle is the business cycle for equities, in bond is a little longer
+The 30yr cycle is the big one
+
+To trade cycle (business one) take a moving average about 1/4 the lenght of cycle and will catch these turn very effectively
+or for z score do 1/2 the lenght of cycle..., because want the mesure the ups & then the downs...
+or same lenght MAV to remove the "cycle" and get the trend !
+
+what is driving the 30 day cycle is always changing and hard to pick up, too much noise
+
+Will think we are mainly looking at a 4 yr cycle, 7yr cycle & a 30 yr cycle
+
+Look at look at the Dickey folder test and not the hearst exponent(JM Hurst Cycle)
+
+
+
+1790 to 1840                  The Bank of the United States Dominates
+
+1840 to 1875                  The Rise of the Railroads
+
+1875 to 1929                  The American Commercial Revolution
+
+1929 to 1964                  The First Magnificent Seven
+
+1964 to 1993                  Free Trade Leads to Global Expansion
+
+1993 to 2014                  The Rise of Fall of the Stock Market
+
+2014 to Present              Technology Stocks Take Over